Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Wolves end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86bc06ad7ab789bcf87c50f5e93a1da733ad031b9fc924ffb24fb89820661c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f3d…7e3cbacked Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…a053backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…492fbacked Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 79c | 4,964$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.87 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yes | 25c | 3,334$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 18c | 1,690$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.33 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,646$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 18c | 901.15$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.21 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 20c | 814.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…10a0backed Yes | 13c | 774.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…df2dbacked Yes | 20c | 711.35$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 80c | 341.35$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9026backed Yes | 20c | 228.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 18c | 225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…f887backed Yes | 19c | 188.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 78c | 136.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e0…9d72backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…8b9dbacked Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…bf90backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed Yes | 18c | 82.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…4db9backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…9cbabacked Yes | 19c | 69.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce21…d5f5backed Yes | 19c | 67.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Wolves end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-02?Yes won
- Will Wolves win on 2025-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.