Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval >45% on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfacd96f4695c8c127a8dcc5b283701600177106ccfada35dd0b115ede129ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2660…8ac6backed Yes | 63c | 30,544$19,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,242.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…9272backed No | 37c | 30,544$11,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,242.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…d685backed Yes | 28c | 29,477$8,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,253.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…51a2backed No | 72c | 29,477$21,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,253.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 71c | 9,148$6,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.62 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 76c | 3,980$3,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.14 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 24c | 2,468$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,998$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 26c | 1,918$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.87 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked No | 80c | 1,289$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,247$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.01 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 79c | 971.62$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.37 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 21c | 936.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 70c | 935.54$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 23c | 861.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 25c | 739.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 65c | 726.46$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.57 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Yes | 69c | 719.43$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 26c | 668.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 60c | 654.37$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.03 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 32c | 627.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 24c | 608.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.26 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…92aebacked Yes | 64c | 542.76$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed No | 38c | 461.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0a…5e93backed No | 66c | 455$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 429.06$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 417.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 39c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 72c | 368.75$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3472…d4f2backed Yes | 49c | 366.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No | 72c | 339.97$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed No | 31c | 338.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 57c | 311.06$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8595…db29backed No | 68c | 287.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 26c | 280$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…8c23backed Yes | 28c | 273.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 270$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 10c | 262$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 252.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 30c | 222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 34c | 211$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 28c | 210.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 78c | 210.31$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 15c | 207$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 36c | 203.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…06c3backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…3f06backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked No | 25c | 179.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 62c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…738fbacked No | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 35c | 120.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed No | 26c | 114.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e53…6c0bbacked Yes | 70c | 110.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 44c | 105.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…d05abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…49a4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3f21backed No | 34c | 74.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…e76dbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 30c | 67.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 26c | 64.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…7c26backed No | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 65c | 53.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…01e0backed Yes | 38c | 53.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed No | 32c | 50.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 79c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed No | 75c | 41.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…9428backed No | 31c | 39.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 79c | 36.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…3346backed Yes | 65c | 35.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…ed67backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…745fbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…9052backed No | 41c | 31.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16a7…bfd0backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…9816backed Yes | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 66c | 29.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…bb0fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.