TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,529,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,664,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,529,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 927 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Thunder63c372,636$235,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,345.046344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Thunder63c300,947$188,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188,647.682147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Thunder53c221,833$116,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,974.678333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Nuggets36c208,220$74,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,615.094551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Nuggets38c168,712$63,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,830.472138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Nuggets40c145,680$58,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,467.984025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nuggets38c130,107$48,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,232.8928341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder62c113,897$70,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,772.3996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Nuggets50c102,866$51,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,352.391782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nuggets38c93,915$35,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,227.5628241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Thunder62c82,555$51,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,244.7522457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder62c80,000$49,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,899.8714052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Nuggets42c79,838$33,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,327.7346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nuggets57c74,894$42,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,984.9210357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder63c67,172$42,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,613.0220248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Nuggets38c52,720$20,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,492.946873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Nuggets44c50,850$22,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,520.6213248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder63c50,000$31,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,250.8329957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a2…3b96backed Nuggets37c47,650$17,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,019.52040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Thunder33c38,984$12,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,676.810926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder66c38,882$25,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,524.125959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Nuggets38c38,455$14,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,650.1314434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder64c31,454$20,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,130.5247848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nuggets38c27,216$10,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,917.1135235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder54c26,453$14,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,306.7180146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9443…e5ecbacked Thunder11c23,091$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.71723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets36c18,810$6,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,083.4962351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Thunder80c18,315$14,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,586.3136057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Thunder65c16,589$10,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,782.64062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder46c16,160$7,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,422.261,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Thunder1c15,815$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1925016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nuggets38c15,792$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,788.497829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Thunder64c15,500$9,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,919.992450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder65c15,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7503852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder62c15,000$9,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,249.9266853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Thunder1c14,775$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9664517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nuggets31c14,090$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,663.0648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets35c14,027$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,062.833,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x322d…305fbacked Nuggets37c13,484$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,494.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder63c12,771$8,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,045.51,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets54c11,639$6,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,404.471,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets35c11,361$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,361.2623342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Thunder64c11,356$7,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,267.687447.3%35 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nuggets41c11,333$4,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.3176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Thunder64c10,945$7,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,004.614654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x874e…52d7backed Nuggets36c10,445$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,663.814766%31 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Nuggets37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3008219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Thunder64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4004452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…0bc4backed Thunder0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e4…9a55backed Thunder0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nuggets37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.9936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder63c10,000$6,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,349.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Nuggets35c9,454$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,109.6326431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Nuggets38c9,250$3,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,740.934143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Nuggets49c9,122$4,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.9116537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Thunder63c8,576$5,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40311443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder62c8,517$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,280.2461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Thunder30c8,506$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.771741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+98.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda93…f09cbacked Thunder62c8,242$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Nuggets44c7,834$3,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,386.9826640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Thunder0c7,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder62c7,428$4,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,638.9147751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Thunder19c7,368$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Thunder5c7,221$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.857929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Nuggets63c6,684$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.294484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Thunder57c6,677$3,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.3614034.3%48 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nuggets37c6,216$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.222842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Nuggets36c6,178$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.7713636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Thunder64c6,156$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.9220047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder65c5,811$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.9218146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Nuggets46c5,730$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.085230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets37c5,555$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.6547542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nuggets36c5,500$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52019149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0292…4211backed Nuggets36c5,336$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,416.811361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Nuggets37c5,323$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,357.497445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb34b…454bbacked Nuggets37c5,302$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Thunder1c5,300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder30c4,993$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47830443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nuggets60c4,796$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.32532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nuggets46c4,774$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.3488053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Thunder56c4,728$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.782560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f84…dd89backed Nuggets78c4,542$3,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Thunder15c4,322$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.0714040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Nuggets37c4,054$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.057261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5453…b886backed Nuggets37c4,045$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Thunder48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9203961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Thunder62c4,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.9549849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder64c3,926$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.212,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Thunder58c3,832$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.9237734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Thunder62c3,553$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.8512040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nuggets38c3,524$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.551,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f86…0fa0backed Nuggets37c3,514$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.51425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0c32backed Nuggets38c3,500$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Thunder47c3,370$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.8141742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Thunder0c3,370$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.111855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+33.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets49c3,358$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.475,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nuggets37c3,333$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.7616844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Nuggets42c3,322$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.1534852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Thunder56c3,236$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.5566744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.