NBA · resolved market
Over 215.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725cac9fc738cab703ee5605d35207610a5752006aff7a3f1080bd5fdf267203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 53c | 1,767$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.49 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 45c | 1,400$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.3 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 45c | 808.8$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.78 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 48c | 651.22$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.89 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 52c | 641.02$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.69 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 55c | 600.92$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 507.9$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 46c | 161.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…9396backed Over | 53c | 42.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Over | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 215.5this page
- Over 213.5Over won
- Over 214.5Over won
- Over 216.5Over won
- Over 217.5Over won
- Over 218.5Over won
- Over 219.5Over won
- Over 220.5Over won
- Over 221.5Over won
- Over 222.5Over won
- Over 223.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.