NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d3eeca9870d02691c258b9a1b08dcc97f636d15ddcbc934312b1e0479eb8125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Thunder | 0c | 4,829$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets | 57c | 4,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 43c | 2,220$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.2 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder | 45c | 1,732$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.66 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder | 42c | 753.72$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 392.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Nuggets | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets | 71c | 178$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nuggets | 47c | 178$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Thunder | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Thunder | 44c | 107.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Nuggets | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…eb97backed Nuggets | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Over 213.5Over won
- Over 214.5Over won
- Over 215.5Over won
- Over 216.5Over won
- Over 217.5Over won
- Over 218.5Over won
- Over 219.5Over won
- Over 220.5Over won
- Over 221.5Over won
- Over 222.5Over won
- Over 223.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.