TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xda93…f09c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,219Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+67%+$816.68
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$591Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$176.64
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$559.98
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$587.03
Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,985Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,984.66
Will Monterrey beat River Plate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.24
Will Manchester City vs. Wydad AC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.62
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12,902Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,902.2
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,371Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$1,972.88
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13,759Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6,181.61
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,866Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$1,244
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12,531Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,530.68
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,879Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$7,185.91
Will Inter win on 2025-04-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13,794Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+57.2%+$7,892.29
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$3,496.81
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$486.75
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30,798Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$13,198.94
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$65,999.98
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$67,575Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$22,525
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$5,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,110.04
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$390
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$7,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,258.76
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$5,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,994.78
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,412Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,412
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,539Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,538.91
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12,539Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$6,459.27
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$373.05
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,604Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,603.81
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$381.22
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$710.4
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$525.78
Will Wolves win on 2025-05-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18,193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$9,796.15
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,640.26
Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,845Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$1,600.2
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$865
Will Brighton win on 2025-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$35.33
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,890
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$887.88
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston vs. Dukebacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$8,039.55
Florida vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13,256Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,256.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.21
Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17,450
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$33,422Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33,421.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariners vs. Tigersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17,612Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$18,331.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.