TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,022,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,187,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,022,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,472 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80cd…0273backed Thunder67c1,000,000$670,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329,999.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Pacers33c330,000$108,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,899.922147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers37c202,423$74,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,095.2728341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5d…bc10backed Pacers33c200,115$66,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,037.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda93…f09cbacked Thunder67c200,000$134,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,999.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9708…925bbacked Pacers33c175,391$57,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,879.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-16%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Thunder68c168,813$114,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,487.3119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Pacers36c157,005$56,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,121.49190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Pacers42c147,879$62,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,113.1613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Thunder67c119,000$79,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,2704654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder67c102,999$69,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,989.828840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Pacers25c102,904$25,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,642.6846426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder67c97,869$65,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,296.7128241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder67c88,000$58,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,04014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder67c78,626$52,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,844.3519149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Pacers32c73,171$23,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,514.045349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers46c71,504$32,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,754.2414434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Pacers43c67,245$28,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,697.871618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Thunder68c59,194$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,193.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder67c56,923$38,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,729.0647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder67c52,748$35,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,602.9496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Pacers39c51,959$20,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,066.017929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder68c44,000$29,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,0803852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder67c34,200$22,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,285.9913560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers41c34,125$13,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,937.415942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Pacers36c33,531$12,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,207.912540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Thunder67c31,547$21,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,410.627840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers32c31,244$10,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,069.8713636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder65c29,999$19,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,416.5420248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Thunder67c29,851$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,850.756873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Pacers57c29,578$16,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,792.3922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pacers20c27,575$5,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,619.121,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers47c26,864$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,50023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Pacers34c23,723$7,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,977.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder66c22,793$14,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,810.51,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Pacers32c22,034$7,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,050.753764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a44…7292backed Thunder67c21,920$14,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,233.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Thunder67c21,139$14,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,975.81666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers39c20,829$8,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,135.9318146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Pacers34c20,000$6,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,866.67850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Thunder51c19,999$10,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,707.047829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…8d15backed Thunder57c17,896$10,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,622.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Thunder67c17,175$11,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,667.638259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pacers35c15,999$5,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,559.432,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Thunder68c15,850$10,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0723450%17 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Pacers33c15,152$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Pacers1c15,119$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.599946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers33c15,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.9936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Pacers58c14,715$8,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,534.728838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed Pacers34c14,706$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder67c14,423$9,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,759.5129957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Pacers33c13,925$4,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,595.319849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Pacers44c13,800$6,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,030.9518518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Thunder42c13,378$5,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,710.9148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Thunder67c13,000$8,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd303…9c76backed Pacers49c12,748$6,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,234.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder54c12,458$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,707.321,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5b…bee1backed Pacers0c12,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Pacers61c11,993$7,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,354.6416537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder35c11,459$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,467.083,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pacers37c11,000$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0403036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Pacers40c10,905$4,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-77.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pacers37c10,885$3,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,985.527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Thunder66c10,756$7,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6578053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Thunder35c10,313$3,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,703.3249849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Pacers43c10,000$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.122714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3620…229abacked Pacers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0f…0536backed Pacers47c9,535$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.834250%21 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Pacers33c8,888$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.042532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdf…e8e4backed Thunder68c8,703$5,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.941250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Thunder67c8,439$5,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.761060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Thunder67c8,200$5,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7064032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Pacers32c8,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.9761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pacers1c7,740$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Pacers46c7,489$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.849450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc93…8afbbacked Thunder54c7,378$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.321471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+81.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Thunder68c7,280$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.67347.9%35 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Pacers40c7,259$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.581978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Thunder64c7,010$4,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Thunder71c6,867$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.6834425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Thunder67c6,790$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.8320756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Pacers32c6,787$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad2…c594backed Thunder61c6,714$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Pacers44c6,678$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.9813133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Pacers32c6,666$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.121729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Thunder67c6,352$4,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.8577745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0144…86f5backed Thunder48c6,350$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Pacers37c6,298$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.2134852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder66c6,205$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.8661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Pacers65c6,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9005369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Thunder57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,58072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Thunder35c6,000$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,897.9618151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Pacers64c5,981$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.441457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Thunder63c5,980$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.6776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Pacers34c5,971$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…d17abacked Pacers34c5,500$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Thunder67c5,357$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.468337.3%31 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Thunder68c5,114$3,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.4927163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder35c5,100$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,31580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Thunder68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6003658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.