NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca376f74c6bc36260a5db29890d629cac658cda737dd7708d007b1d973a6631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Over | 75c | 850$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 27c | 844.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 30c | 312.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Over | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Under | 37c | 291.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Under | 32c | 199.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Over | 70c | 190.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked Over | 70c | 111.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…2dfcbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 208 | 47.6%99 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…9068backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…a37abacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…bbb7backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4532…44abbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bf…143fbacked Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef8…7ab8backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…c52bbacked Over | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…6c48backed Under | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…9686backed Under | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…020dbacked Over | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…75f4backed Over | 68c | 54.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…78a4backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…ef4abacked Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…9906backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…32d9backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…4e11backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…7916backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…58e3backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…9555backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…a3e3backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…2818backed Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…6b56backed Over | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…c530backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35f8…be62backed Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…3befbacked Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.45per pick | 55cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…4caebacked Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…dbf0backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Over | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…ab8fbacked Over | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 220.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.