NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8bb88d92736b1a831b87bed17f39ceeea6492abfb30981058b08edda9f75e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e8d…2965backed Thunder | 49c | 8,177$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,170.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers | 51c | 6,641$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.76 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…15dabacked Thunder | 48c | 5,504$2,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 52c | 3,417$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.67 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Thunder | 48c | 3,036$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.6 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 12c | 1,893$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.93 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 47c | 1,400$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Thunder | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.83 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Pacers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pacers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Pacers | 52c | 999.99$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…069abacked Pacers | 53c | 760$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 553$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Thunder | 47c | 532.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.32 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…323cbacked Pacers | 53c | 466.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 46c | 431.49$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.38 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Thunder | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…5d47backed Pacers | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Pacers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed Pacers | 51c | 350$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7400…c5ccbacked Thunder | 50c | 336$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 44c | 316.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.14 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Pacers | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…2a7abacked Thunder | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 50c | 220.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe0…6e30backed Pacers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Pacers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…9085backed Pacers | 61c | 147.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Pacers | 55c | 130.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Thunder | 47c | 112.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Thunder | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pacers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 87 | 14.9%13 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd8…8ee4backed Thunder | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Thunder | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Pacers | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Thunder | 47c | 49.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Pacers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Thunder | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Thunder | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…4fccbacked Pacers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Pacers | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.45per pick | 55cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Pacers | 68c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Pacers | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.