NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b519f0c8902f0a117f151de5d8c6cb32f697e49456e8415909bd70ba320f611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Under | 47c | 9,154$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,864.28 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Over | 53c | 4,103$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.48 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Under | 48c | 3,995$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Under | 48c | 2,570$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 52c | 1,692$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.69 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Under | 44c | 1,657$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.03 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…336ebacked Under | 47c | 1,426$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.69 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,410$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.73 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 49c | 1,213$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Over | 56c | 1,140$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.88 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 46c | 1,134$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.13 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 1,111$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.16 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 56c | 1,100$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 282 | 45.4%128 W · 154 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 47c | 1,000$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 51c | 691.51$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.69 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Over | 53c | 666.04$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 47c | 666$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Under | 45c | 599.67$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 39cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 45c | 499.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.89 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 44c | 453.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.89 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Under | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 39c | 388.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…069abacked Under | 46c | 255$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Over | 56c | 230.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 229$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Over | 56c | 178.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Under | 46c | 169.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…4c14backed Over | 54c | 164.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 53c | 151.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 15c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 56c | 100.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Over | 55c | 94.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Under | 61c | 91.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -15.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Under | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Under | 47c | 72.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…cad7backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 43c | 30.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Under | 45c | 29.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 25.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…87eebacked Over | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 225.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.