TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,512,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,684,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,512,087 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2635…5408backed No44c772,785$340,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340,336.023522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes56c231,101$128,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,404.5512848.4%62 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes56c200,000$111,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,302.987060%42 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff48…b0ecbacked Yes56c176,674$98,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,736.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes51c114,271$58,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,805.919146.2%42 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No43c66,731$28,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,694.410443.3%45 W · 59 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed No44c47,597$20,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,942.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Yes56c39,100$21,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,204955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes55c38,755$21,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,456.451,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed No50c31,113$15,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,439.671866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes56c27,660$15,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,170.617042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes54c25,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,5001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Yes56c24,993$13,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,997.059857.1%56 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed Yes55c22,217$12,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,915.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No53c20,626$10,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,881.617048.2%82 W · 88 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No44c20,079$8,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,735.431233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No47c19,123$8,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,895.128231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed No46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,900955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No48c15,000$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,249.9417853.9%96 W · 82 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yes70c13,224$9,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,006.0214952.3%78 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No45c13,019$5,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,858.6710040%40 W · 60 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No44c12,935$5,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,716.3119028.9%55 W · 135 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No46c12,440$5,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.7117852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed No47c12,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.956858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ea…cbf1backed Yes56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No44c7,100$3,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.875352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No45c7,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.9822147.5%105 W · 116 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9a…5b99backed Yes57c6,722$3,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.461050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No4c6,650$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26820948.8%102 W · 107 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No44c5,782$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.853145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No43c5,664$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.5339842.2%168 W · 230 L+1.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No45c5,000$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.9719453.6%104 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed No45c4,888$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.66241.9%26 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes56c4,553$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.281546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes56c4,500$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+87.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No44c4,085$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.2217348%83 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Yes62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.155850%29 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Yes54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8401450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.585740.4%23 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No44c3,683$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.7338343.1%165 W · 218 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes57c3,289$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.371643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes52c3,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.057750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35012921.7%28 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yes65c2,833$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.025360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c51…ee64backed Yes57c2,631$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.0514953%79 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes56c2,448$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.283959%23 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Yes56c2,425$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.883262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No45c2,340$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.997842.3%33 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes56c2,321$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.437737.7%29 W · 48 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Yes54c2,200$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0121650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…22b6backed Yes56c2,022$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8803655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88018160.8%110 W · 71 L+18.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf208…314ebacked Yes56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x732b…3b02backed Yes56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8803100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed No43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9614235.2%50 W · 92 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked No44c1,979$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.811844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ed…f7b2backed Yes60c1,971$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No45c1,967$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.022927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No12c1,939$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.392832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes57c1,916$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.7812036.7%44 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked No54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007451.4%38 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.711963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Yes56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.712045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+87.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Yes56c1,783$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.535339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked No43c1,760$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.774619.6%9 W · 37 L-9.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No47c1,701$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.476558.5%38 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb96a…18d4backed Yes57c1,681$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.03540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb22a…77c9backed Yes57c1,630$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes55c1,557$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.525056%28 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No45c1,484$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6688836.4%32 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No34c1,449$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.511,51140.2%608 W · 903 L-6.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No44c1,427$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.9711649.1%57 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…3f0abacked Yes55c1,365$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.541643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc92…7505backed No9c1,349$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3380%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes54c1,297$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.218051.3%41 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes49c1,277$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.742458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes57c1,270$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.11650%8 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+51.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda93…f09cbacked No47c1,249$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.031752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed Yes56c1,186$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No45c1,183$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.452737%10 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No46c1,120$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.084645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Yes53c1,061$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005133.3%17 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes56c1,015$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.511241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406552.3%34 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc5…53c3backed Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4408151.9%42 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No44c999.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9912956.6%73 W · 56 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Yes54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…22d9backed Yes56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.863971.8%28 W · 11 L+6.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+33%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Yes54c889.5$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.176053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f8…188fbacked Yes56c886.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa296…ab9ebacked Yes54c877.81$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes51c838.88$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.5515250.7%77 W · 75 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed No31c837.21$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked No44c834.43$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.81643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.