Champions League · resolved market
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1747a5c2c9e74c6866481c9d5cea26a994a00278d9a40f6e6b22c0624f471ac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $614,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $663,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 18c | 381,818$67,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,945.3 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 16c | 19,495$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 15,237$2,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.71 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 19c | 13,000$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…f279backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 16c | 7,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 6,761$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.4 | 2,101 | 43.6%917 W · 1,184 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 15c | 6,156$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2a5fbacked No | 80c | 5,864$4,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 23c | 3,361$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 18c | 2,747$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,533$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.25 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…db82backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,436$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 15c | 1,120$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…4bbdbacked Yes | 15c | 830.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 15c | 820.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 19c | 816$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked No | 79c | 699.62$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 17c | 614.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 4c | 545$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…ef73backed Yes | 19c | 520.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 439.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 420$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 16c | 381.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed No | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 21c | 309.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 17c | 229.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Yes | 20c | 225$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…efe8backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed Yes | 12c | 208.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…b887backed Yes | 17c | 163.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5b0bbacked No | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…d4a9backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…213ebacked No | 79c | 130.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…5a7ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…be51backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…ffe5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…70c8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…3567backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 67.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…a5c4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…9cf7backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…ec60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 34.5%101 W · 192 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…2c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
- Will Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.