Champions League · resolved market
Will Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701b6390c10ff165cd9aed750a92acc973df476e3f7aa053a41224f6a774aaa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 13,862$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.82 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35a…6967backed Yes | 27c | 6,300$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 63c | 4,583$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.52 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 4,255$3,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.26 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…6791backed Yes | 27c | 3,700$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…4c3cbacked No | 73c | 3,425$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…332cbacked No | 73c | 3,425$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…afd7backed No | 73c | 3,150$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 64c | 2,948$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.41 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed No | 60c | 2,605$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 62c | 2,275$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 64c | 966.82$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.28 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 813.79$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 29c | 791.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.41 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 14c | 740$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 27c | 733.52$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed Yes | 7c | 481.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 54c | 399.43$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa737…cc88backed No | 54c | 331$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 73c | 316.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 23c | 314.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 28c | 251.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…4979backed Yes | 14c | 240.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 231.49$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 28c | 205$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 26c | 196.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Yes | 27c | 174.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 68c | 146.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 15c | 137.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…77fcbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 35c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…764dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 60.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 59c | 52.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2319…4029backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…b24abacked Yes | 49c | 31.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…a8b3backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…9433backed Yes | 55c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
- Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.