TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa3c…a6a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Valorant at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST2740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$215.38
Will Real Sociedad vs. Mallorca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$197.81
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$304.04
Will Barcelona vs. Getafe end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
Will Mallorca vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+218.7%+$349.93
Will Valencia vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+71.9%+$287.75
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$149.35
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$288.24
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$246.91
Will Barcelona vs. Valencia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$116.67
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.17
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.49
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$93.33
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$41.63
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$25
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5)backed Dragon Ranger Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$18.86
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.37
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$29.14
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$25.97
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Valorant: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$13.27
Will Team Heretics win VALORANT Champions 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
Valorant: PRX vs Team Heretics backed Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Valorant: MIBR vs NRGbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Valorant: Fnatic vs Paper Rexbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Valorant: Team Heretics vs GXbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$61.27
Valorant: NRG vs GIANTXbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Valorant: Team Heretics vs MIBRbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$550
Valorant: Fnatic vs DRXbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esportsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
All 25 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+78.7%+$150.38
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$575.61
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$200
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$269.23
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+47%+$404.49
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$71.11
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$38.33
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 4 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+100.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-09-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GEN vs. T1backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.