Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2960304f7c94f230c9fdcd1aab59bad8be62dd360941d0929abd2f4748577e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 23c | 95,955$22,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,069.65 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…da1abacked Yes | 22c | 2,249$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 1,958$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.42 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 23c | 1,753$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 77c | 1,105$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 15c | 912.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 25c | 752.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 77c | 670$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 25c | 607.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 24c | 416.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…17b6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 76c | 309.68$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0148backed Yes | 24c | 267.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 76c | 247.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…550dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…cf6cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 186.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 22c | 129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed No | 80c | 117.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dad…07d0backed Yes | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…f9cbbacked Yes | 24c | 81.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…641fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 22c | 70.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 53.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…0b66backed No | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e2…07f5backed Yes | 24c | 46.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…862ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18?Yes won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.