Champions League · resolved market
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0277983e6a4c3a5690a3cc3ed153e054e1b4fe08c225efdd44933a9e2bc49520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 25c | 18,242$4,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560.59 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 75c | 18,233$13,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,558.25 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 18c | 5,522$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 75c | 2,734$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.38 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 79c | 2,201$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.65 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 1,998$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.53 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 15c | 1,423$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 74c | 1,232$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 26c | 1,023$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 25c | 498.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 426$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 22c | 269.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 24c | 204.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9d38backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 96.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 21c | 95.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 18c | 84.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…5f75backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed No | 76c | 78.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…764dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67e…2434backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 22c | 46.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 76c | 23.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7183…dcc3backed No | 75c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw?this page
- Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16?No won
- Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.