TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,688,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,819,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,688,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2635…5408backed Yes48c416,053$199,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198,999.542626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed Yes50c400,735$200,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200,367.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked No53c316,525$166,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,311.182853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed No51c244,823$125,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,546.699450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed No51c198,518$100,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,134862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed No53c95,000$50,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,65011029.1%32 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed No50c70,700$35,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,3506445.3%29 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00030851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Yes50c40,000$19,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,987.361520%3 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40031947.6%152 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed No57c37,134$21,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,826.8510357.3%59 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No49c35,252$17,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.8317958.1%104 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes48c28,118$13,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,496.4114544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed No50c24,286$12,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,1434841.7%20 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ea…cbf1backed Yes49c20,410$10,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.881625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No50c15,286$7,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,642.9915949.1%78 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No50c14,301$7,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,142.6110849.1%53 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes43c13,708$5,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,92910636.8%39 W · 67 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes50c12,169$6,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,029.7927235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes51c11,653$5,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,942.9920039.5%79 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No52c11,111$5,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.284045%18 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf00…f509backed Yes29c10,420$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9822744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x434e…a307backed No52c9,700$5,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,655.79650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Yes48c9,240$4,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,434.9710737.4%40 W · 67 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd836…ea78backed Yes53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2403540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9207256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.988750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No49c5,886$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.6531944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No53c5,555$2,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.8532037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd070…a978backed Yes20c5,200$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No68c5,076$3,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.5651542.5%219 W · 296 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No77c4,608$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.134946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes51c4,608$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35010848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No49c4,605$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.6521154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes51c4,275$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.881,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes48c4,163$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9988633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes50c4,160$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0802944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde2c…587bbacked Yes50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No48c4,000$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.9590751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked No51c3,994$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.15875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+70.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadb7…91b4backed Yes17c3,574$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No51c3,300$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.9746651.9%242 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53040046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes34c2,914$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No50c2,600$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30037054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20024566.1%162 W · 83 L+24.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No53c2,217$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.9810159.4%60 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked No49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.829242.4%39 W · 53 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Yes49c2,039$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.973161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96013837%51 W · 87 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ae…b883backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.985160.8%31 W · 20 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.789749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes51c1,944$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9881643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No48c1,838$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.9220140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes49c1,817$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.311,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Yes52c1,778$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.544139%16 W · 25 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Yes50c1,719$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.622259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1319…cf06backed Yes5c1,696$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7806747.8%32 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed No76c1,431$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.9320744%91 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes49c1,395$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.421855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde00…6879backed Yes48c1,360$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.66850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No48c1,328$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.7410455.8%58 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yes53c1,301$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.6614544.1%64 W · 81 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked No49c1,267$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.393046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No50c1,250$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62517745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcde3…002dbacked No80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502556%14 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes20c1,224$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505637.5%21 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21e6…cbd8backed No50c1,218$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.054353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed No52c1,121$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.221258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x421d…320abacked No50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5504100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e92…f606backed Yes26c1,080$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Yes48c1,041$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.681631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Yes49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f25…8ca8backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes49c1,000$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48644939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4809861.2%60 W · 38 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ef…de86backed No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2106048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2441…a2f5backed Yes51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4706051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fce…28f8backed Yes51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3502…e99ebacked Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No65c980.37$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.2627454%148 W · 126 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes52c954.78$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5413834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7758…2851backed No50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…ed67backed No50c850$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f67…03fcbacked Yes51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed Yes20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606838.2%26 W · 42 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No52c799.98$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9925836%93 W · 165 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ee…6f8fbacked No50c750$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6e…1e63backed Yes51c724.25$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd40c…ddc3backed Yes51c700$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Yes44c688.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013944.6%62 W · 77 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No50c680.22$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.111758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+51.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.