TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x68ee…6f8f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
17
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick40cpaid+137.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+61.3%+$342
Lions vs. Ravensbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,773Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$3,767.2
Raiders vs. Commandersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$494.5
Packers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$3,555
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10.5
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+75.4%+$301
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$408
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$33.3
Brewers vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$705
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+100%+$375
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada election called before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+53.8%+$8.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+51.5%+$271.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$468
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.