NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb68114f91bebbdf4db3b833187ffa59aa3b9a727cbc3070f232e2fbc8efa530d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Raiders, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,534,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,609,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,534,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Commanders | 59c | 1,011,284$596,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415,133.8 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Raiders | 41c | 803,537$330,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330,472.13 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Raiders | 41c | 116,243$47,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,659.57 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Raiders | 41c | 103,576$42,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,466.31 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Raiders | 41c | 55,555$22,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,777.55 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Raiders | 40c | 38,390$15,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,321.83 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Commanders | 59c | 33,625$19,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,786.43 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Raiders | 38c | 30,016$11,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,500.89 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Commanders | 65c | 30,000$19,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,500 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Raiders | 39c | 28,070$11,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,055.6 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Raiders | 42c | 23,692$9,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,915.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raiders | 37c | 19,222$7,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200.87 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Commanders | 60c | 18,103$10,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,240.76 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders | 58c | 15,100$8,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,343 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Commanders | 58c | 14,517$8,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,097.24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Commanders | 58c | 14,199$8,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,963.6 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked Commanders | 59c | 13,759$8,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,641.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Commanders | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Commanders | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.96 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Commanders | 79c | 9,683$7,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.89 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Commanders | 79c | 9,105$7,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Commanders | 59c | 8,549$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.24 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Raiders | 38c | 8,208$3,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.64 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Commanders | 62c | 7,950$4,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Commanders | 62c | 7,137$4,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Commanders | 68c | 6,590$4,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.27 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Commanders | 59c | 6,542$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.08 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders | 58c | 6,385$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.69 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Commanders | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Commanders | 60c | 5,667$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.67 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raiders | 40c | 5,588$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.74 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Commanders | 58c | 4,500$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders | 39c | 4,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Commanders | 71c | 3,935$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.54 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…98b8backed Commanders | 58c | 3,800$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raiders | 20c | 3,646$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.37 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Commanders | 61c | 3,610$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.84 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders | 33c | 3,579$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.34 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Commanders | 58c | 3,500$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Commanders | 59c | 3,500$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Raiders | 23c | 3,437$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.84 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 5c | 3,409$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raiders | 9c | 3,203$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Commanders | 66c | 3,086$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.14 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c5…98ecbacked Raiders | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…1003backed Commanders | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c0…c012backed Raiders | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raiders | 22c | 2,831$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.17 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Raiders | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raiders | 28c | 2,316$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.38 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders | 71c | 2,291$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.25 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Commanders | 58c | 2,271$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Commanders | 61c | 2,158$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Commanders | 59c | 2,100$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raiders | 1c | 2,012$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Commanders | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2441…a2f5backed Raiders | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders | 58c | 1,949$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.45 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…94c3backed Raiders | 43c | 1,800$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Commanders | 58c | 1,738$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.84 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Commanders | 58c | 1,725$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Commanders | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…2d2dbacked Commanders | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Commanders | 68c | 1,619$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.3 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…ddc3backed Commanders | 58c | 1,600$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raiders | 36c | 1,500$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.69 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f67…03fcbacked Commanders | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders | 26c | 1,483$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.77 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…2851backed Commanders | 58c | 1,450$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Commanders | 58c | 1,406$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.51 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…ed67backed Raiders | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Raiders | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa3…5154backed Raiders | 38c | 1,303$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Commanders | 59c | 1,290$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.8 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raiders | 26c | 1,225$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.98 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Commanders | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Raiders | 41c | 1,165$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.95 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Raiders | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.09 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68ee…6f8fbacked Raiders | 43c | 1,150$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 40cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b9…5455backed Raiders | 18c | 1,139$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Commanders | 63c | 1,100$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…9e63backed Commanders | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Commanders | 59c | 1,000$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…2b60backed Commanders | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Raiders | 42c | 999.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.99 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Raiders | 40c | 999.97$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.99 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Raiders | 43c | 932.04$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.59 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Raiders | 40c | 876.84$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.87 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Raiders | 27c | 863.34$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6275backed Commanders | 59c | 764.36$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Commanders | 61c | 710.13$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Commanders | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Commanders | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Commanders | 60c | 689.8$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked Commanders | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Commanders | 60c | 603$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Commanders | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Raiders | 42c | 599.82$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.93 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Commanders | 59c | 588$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Commanders | 69c | 553.64$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Commandersthis page
- LV vs. WAS: O/U 51.5Over won
- LV vs. WAS: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-3.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-6.5)WAS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.