TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Commanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Raiders, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,534,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,609,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,534,442 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Commanders59c1,011,284$596,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415,133.88344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Raiders41c803,537$330,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330,472.1341851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Raiders41c116,243$47,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,659.575550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Raiders41c103,576$42,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,466.317554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Raiders41c55,555$22,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,777.5512352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raiders40c38,390$15,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,321.833548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Commanders59c33,625$19,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,786.4316836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Raiders38c30,016$11,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,500.8922548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Commanders65c30,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,50011755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Raiders39c28,070$11,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,055.647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Raiders42c23,692$9,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,915.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raiders37c19,222$7,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,200.8741947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Commanders60c18,103$10,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.7631848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders58c15,100$8,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,34330743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Commanders58c14,517$8,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,097.243138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Commanders58c14,199$8,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963.610650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ce…d06dbacked Commanders59c13,759$8,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,641.172030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Commanders58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Commanders58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.9624652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Commanders79c9,683$7,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.8919551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Commanders79c9,105$7,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.381758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Commanders59c8,549$5,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.2412843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Raiders38c8,208$3,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,114.6417648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Commanders62c7,950$4,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,02114349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Commanders62c7,137$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,687.27757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Commanders68c6,590$4,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.2729356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Commanders59c6,542$3,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,670.0824551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders58c6,385$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.6983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Commanders59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.12025%5 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Commanders60c5,667$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.672744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raiders40c5,588$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.7411146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Commanders58c4,500$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Commanders71c3,935$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.5410462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34a…98b8backed Commanders58c3,800$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raiders20c3,646$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.3760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Commanders61c3,610$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.8454451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders33c3,579$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.3444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Commanders58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47014248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Commanders59c3,500$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,43526650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raiders23c3,437$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.8468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Raiders5c3,409$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5261148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Raiders9c3,203$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5564747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Commanders66c3,086$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.1483447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c5…98ecbacked Raiders43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee7…1003backed Commanders58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2602100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c0…c012backed Raiders43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Raiders22c2,831$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.1727644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Raiders40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raiders28c2,316$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.3853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders71c2,291$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.2532050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Commanders58c2,271$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.055851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Commanders61c2,158$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.58648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked Commanders59c2,100$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8683151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Raiders1c2,012$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.854311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Commanders58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2441…a2f5backed Raiders43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders58c1,949$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.459949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x532f…94c3backed Raiders43c1,800$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Commanders58c1,738$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.8414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x637a…6d23backed Commanders58c1,725$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Commanders59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9216344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94fe…2d2dbacked Commanders60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.671963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Commanders68c1,619$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.331056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd40c…ddc3backed Commanders58c1,600$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raiders36c1,500$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.6929751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f67…03fcbacked Commanders58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders26c1,483$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7758…2851backed Commanders58c1,450$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick58cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Commanders58c1,406$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.5137350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…ed67backed Raiders43c1,400$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60240%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Raiders38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa3…5154backed Raiders38c1,303$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Commanders59c1,290$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.814148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raiders26c1,225$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Commanders59c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4927644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Raiders41c1,165$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.9531854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Raiders43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.096233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68ee…6f8fbacked Raiders43c1,150$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick40cpaid+137.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97b9…5455backed Raiders18c1,139$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003243.8%14 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+79.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Commanders63c1,100$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4071662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Commanders58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.482347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Commanders59c1,000$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…2b60backed Commanders58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Raiders42c999.99$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9914945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Raiders40c999.97$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.9941540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Raiders43c932.04$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5913842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8159…8d5cbacked Raiders40c876.84$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.878043.8%35 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Raiders27c863.34$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.046550.8%33 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed Commanders59c764.36$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.393250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Commanders61c710.13$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.952846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Commanders71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.239152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Commanders58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2944551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Commanders60c689.8$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2927339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Commanders62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.169359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Commanders60c603$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.212954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Commanders59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2466264.5%40 W · 22 L+12.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+141.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Raiders42c599.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9323647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Commanders59c588$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.086648.5%32 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Commanders69c553.64$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.632979.3%23 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.