AI · resolved market
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ed818555d6c0622f7a1c6190293d47fdf81dae5bc922cd389113afb85dee4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 57c | 4,725$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 50c | 3,171$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 2,853$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.39 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 2c | 2,705$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 46c | 2,693$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.54 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 64c | 1,772$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 46c | 1,355$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.99 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,323$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 15c | 1,165$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed Yes | 58c | 1,042$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e874backed Yes | 59c | 841.61$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed Yes | 61c | 820.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 69c | 819.21$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.03 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 749.28$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.28 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 696.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 61c | 674.51$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 21c | 654.31$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 27c | 654.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 620$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…d98bbacked Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 52c | 499.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 61c | 495.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 480.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 41c | 470.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.36 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…9d53backed Yes | 53c | 465.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 48c | 449.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 37c | 408.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 398.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 59c | 360.74$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…34a4backed Yes | 56c | 356.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 10c | 355.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde8…619bbacked Yes | 54c | 351.37$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 15c | 334.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 44c | 332.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f232backed Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…908ebacked No | 48c | 249.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes | 11c | 246.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 55c | 246.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 44c | 236.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…974bbacked Yes | 47c | 220.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 70c | 214.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 13c | 208.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 204$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 7c | 202.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…5534backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…40dcbacked No | 45c | 199.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 193.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 10c | 175.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f1…a9a8backed Yes | 57c | 174.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 9c | 168.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes | 12c | 164.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…bf76backed Yes | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…91b0backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 45c | 156.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 55c | 145.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 131.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…81aabacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 45c | 120.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…452ebacked Yes | 11c | 114.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 48c | 110.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 61c | 104.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…74c5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa808…07b0backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ee…6f8fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…8728backed Yes | 60c | 99.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0f…2e32backed Yes | 55c | 99.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…4dc3backed Yes | 51c | 97.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 95.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed No | 50c | 94.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…977dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…1b28backed Yes | 26c | 84.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624c…92a2backed Yes | 59c | 83.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 82.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 32c | 78.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 27c | 77.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…85c5backed Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 73.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…28e0backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed No | 70c | 67.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…1f00backed Yes | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.