TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x28fb…9490

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
140
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 64 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2763%17 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+73.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34.7%+$12.16
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$7.5
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+1,016.6%+$315.15
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+61.3%+$9.19
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+75.4%+$11.32
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+127.3%+$19.09
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+302.3%+$160.22
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+251.7%+$37.75
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+243.5%+$29.22
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+92.3%+$46.15
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.86
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+365.4%+$73.07
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+128.6%+$64.29
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$60.49
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+71.6%+$73
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+239.3%+$179.47
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Knicks vs. Bucksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
76ers vs. Wizardsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+67.1%+$13.42
Trail Blazers vs. Lakersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Mavericksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
Raptors vs. Spursbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Celtics vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Raptors vs. Mavericksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$113.31
All 24 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.5
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+324.1%+$74.55
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$7.12
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+37%+$27.5
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$11.05
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$34.07
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+78.7%+$33.07
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$72.08
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+121.6%+$36.48
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+121.8%+$237.49
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$77
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+51.4%+$53.97
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+101.6%+$111.78
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
All 19 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.6wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+111.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$74
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.8%+$29.41
Altcoin market cap dip to $160B by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27%+$40.45
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.8%+$87.52
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.7%+$52.33
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.1%+$55.7
Will Chainlink dip to $10 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$7.5
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+132.6%+$15.91
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 November 24-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+257.1%+$51.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+143.8%+$64.69
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+566.7%+$85
Will Zcash hit $500 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
League of Legends Worlds Parlay backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$42.5
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$37.21
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$38.17
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$447.51
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 10 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+95.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+163.2%+$40.79
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+102.5%+$30.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+63.9%+$9.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$21.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Erste Bank Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$13.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+37%+$12.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$19.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Senatorsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$12.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.