TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc0…99f3backed No23c34,137$7,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,158.8811836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No22c11,890$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,251.846453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No16c7,000$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,908.3310426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes7c6,241$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.317219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No1c4,303$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.226434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No11c2,405$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.3225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked No4c2,315$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+257.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes26c2,298$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.781776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+90.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes13c1,920$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401030%3 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No15c1,552$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.776150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No4c1,364$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.054540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd5…1492backed No5c1,322$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+485.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes13c1,280$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes13c1,280$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed No20c1,250$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.971526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes1c1,214$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,179$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.541,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e83…e26ebacked No12c1,170$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f43…cf42backed Yes71c1,158$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes26c1,144$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.732254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8f59…3b40backed No12c1,100$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.81560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed No27c1,001$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473e…cfe2backed Yes72c1,000$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f1…1abbbacked Yes12c999.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No10c974.03$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.374012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No12c955.14$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.571442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+72.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No53c932.61$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+170.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No19c878.2$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.358041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…123bbacked Yes70c872.73$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ee…fe93backed No35c854.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No28c777.97$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.023447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…9ee9backed No29c771.23$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+149.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe763…007dbacked Yes72c654.66$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No18c650.96$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.892832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes77c646.15$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked No6c635.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.943023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid+59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked No2c602.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.29812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+413.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No13c600$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.753842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No32c501.67$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.4812639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes78c500$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No3c499.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.494628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c499.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9926312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No4c499.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9721713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…572ebacked No14c429.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+289.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No3c423.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.846524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No24c420.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.451258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+191%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No20c413.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.469333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes70c400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e1…fa2abacked Yes78c398$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.56742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+146.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c387.89$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d8…e6afbacked Yes80c359.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6fa…70b4backed No27c340.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+147.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes77c325.72$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4918323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4717…dab1backed No27c275.41$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe891…465dbacked Yes76c270$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1fe…118dbacked Yes62c249.95$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…3ea8backed Yes78c230.55$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1793050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No5c224.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.0515452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69a3…3939backed Yes54c213.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No22c206.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.256136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cc…5307backed No15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…188dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4012…020abacked Yes78c199.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No23c173.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.937852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf022…f816backed No9c166.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+455.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7799…ad20backed No18c163.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.891833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No16c151.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d1…86abbacked Yes71c150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf75…f10fbacked No17c149.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c6…0537backed Yes79c133.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No10c132.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0121125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Yes76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b78…2637backed No8c127.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+61.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes71c126$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.731957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd8…d8f0backed Yes11c114.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes26c104.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.918837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad3…5691backed Yes10c101.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+217.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f27…989dbacked Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6931…6a7ebacked Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x623b…ece1backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5b…c44bbacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa91a…72d6backed No15c99.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d20…24f8backed No31c94.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28fb…9490backed No21c93.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.072763%17 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+73.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes69c92.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.21450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x184e…3a48backed No19c83.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+236.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes80c75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick63cpaid+116.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6013…d915backed Yes41c73.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd1…4bffbacked No16c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0551…ee04backed Yes52c67.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.05757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No19c64.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9228828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f6f…d3fcbacked Yes80c62.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes20c59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3612…0ebfbacked Yes73c54.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes68c53.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.111450%7 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.