AI · resolved market
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd99a14cebd63ab3433bb43af0f088257f2214dc8bf592a6b89753f7ad2560b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 41c | 19,465$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,545.6 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 1c | 10,300$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,197 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +3,312.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…c7efbacked Yes | 1c | 5,070$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,044.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +1.00per pick | 1cpaid | +19,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 69c | 1,451$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.17 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 23c | 1,276$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 21c | 1,085$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 34c | 932.14$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +170.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 19c | 699.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 13c | 572.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 20c | 363.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…5691backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf022…f816backed No | 25c | 60.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…85c1backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 80c | 18.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.