AI · resolved market
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f270a41ce97e654964db17d444f862900b60e3c9eace8b85d16dbaf62ede47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 0c | 17,750$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 3c | 7,678$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 4,449$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f8…8066backed Yes | 6c | 1,184$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 934.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…844bbacked Yes | 3c | 592.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 4c | 562.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Yes | 4c | 417.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…41febacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed Yes | 3c | 398.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…7666backed Yes | 3c | 333.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…86abbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 7c | 299.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…ff99backed Yes | 7c | 229.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f04…425ebacked Yes | 10c | 200.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…efafbacked Yes | 9c | 196.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 135.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 11c | 131.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?this page
- Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.