Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb111226a8271fed0c71bb5ec1bd67b2a4fd72f1eb08466e2180b9efa99d3f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,634,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,813,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,634,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,060 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x269f…16c9backed No | 4c | 1,904,039$72,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,289.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,270,481$998,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271,938.25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…d966backed Yes | 71c | 709,409$504,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204,716.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 65c | 534,804$346,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188,052.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 79c | 463,896$364,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,623.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 57c | 461,365$263,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198,123.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…3c28backed No | 11c | 360,696$39,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,676.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 56c | 354,250$196,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157,455.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 73c | 330,311$241,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,531.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 56c | 322,454$181,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141,272.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked No | 6c | 320,073$18,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,814.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…1ccbbacked No | 4c | 319,230$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 33c | 300,679$98,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201,995.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 61c | 294,667$180,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,341.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes | 64c | 263,287$169,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93,651.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 69c | 256,868$177,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,048.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…e0fbbacked Yes | 62c | 245,482$153,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,296.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 55c | 221,598$122,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,769.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 80c | 220,984$176,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,292.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 211,409$142,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,166.53 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…0d06backed No | 3c | 206,447$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,998.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 70c | 201,821$142,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,728.59 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 69c | 193,341$133,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,247.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 67c | 165,014$110,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,465.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +78%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…514fbacked No | 3c | 160,803$5,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,448 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…64c4backed Yes | 57c | 151,966$86,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,550.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…89debacked Yes | 72c | 127,887$91,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,167.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd459…13f9backed Yes | 78c | 124,955$97,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,390.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed No | 4c | 123,432$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…8cc1backed Yes | 78c | 118,058$91,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,285.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 3c | 117,226$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…cf5fbacked No | 4c | 114,090$4,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…9188backed Yes | 49c | 110,996$54,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,874.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 110,308$36,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,944.96 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed Yes | 34c | 102,111$34,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,392.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 3c | 102,071$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 78c | 101,397$78,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,472.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked Yes | 34c | 100,396$34,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,334.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 36c | 100,152$35,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,406.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes | 66c | 100,065$65,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,174.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…0cd3backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 16c | 100,000$16,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,999.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…67c6backed Yes | 73c | 95,160$69,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,985.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes | 68c | 95,000$64,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,760 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…f59dbacked Yes | 77c | 93,000$71,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,809.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 32c | 92,359$29,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,221.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 68c | 88,209$59,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,226.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…afd4backed Yes | 50c | 85,455$42,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,727.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…b501backed No | 17c | 81,496$14,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,233.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 40c | 80,696$32,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,037.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 31c | 79,188$24,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,458.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 56c | 78,981$44,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,372.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes | 71c | 75,117$53,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,116.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…918cbacked Yes | 65c | 74,214$48,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,906.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…d563backed No | 25c | 69,588$17,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,062.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a47…88f2backed Yes | 71c | 69,495$49,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,330.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 76c | 68,322$51,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,674 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…6ff7backed No | 4c | 67,911$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Yes | 50c | 63,999$32,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,742.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…03b2backed Yes | 49c | 61,360$30,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,332.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…84a5backed No | 8c | 60,561$4,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,644.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 64c | 60,104$38,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,668.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 18c | 60,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,499.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 52c | 50,592$26,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,443.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4086backed No | 11c | 50,400$5,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,713.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…95babacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 48c | 50,000$24,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,139.6 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 54c | 50,000$27,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,799.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…dad8backed Yes | 30c | 49,471$14,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,629.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 73c | 49,430$36,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,245.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…cd6cbacked No | 6c | 48,855$3,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 4c | 46,230$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.53 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 68c | 45,245$30,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,357.55 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…c1a1backed Yes | 32c | 43,430$13,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,555.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…8abfbacked No | 3c | 43,171$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…ffaebacked No | 5c | 41,779$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…198fbacked No | 2c | 41,764$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…48c2backed Yes | 69c | 41,443$28,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,778.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…1453backed No | 3c | 41,339$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 38c | 39,000$14,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,253.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 23c | 38,935$8,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,794.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked No | 4c | 38,508$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 61c | 38,289$23,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,932.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 51c | 38,200$19,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,651.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 31c | 38,151$11,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,295.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 15c | 36,110$5,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.73 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 50c | 35,631$17,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,652.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 73c | 35,551$25,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,704.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed No | 24c | 34,972$8,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,347.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 80c | 34,858$27,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,994.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a44…9d20backed No | 34c | 34,229$11,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,527.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes | 30c | 33,561$9,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,583.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed No | 3c | 33,500$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…fbf3backed No | 3c | 33,470$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…3128backed Yes | 70c | 33,336$23,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,856.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…1e72backed No | 3c | 31,811$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…bda8backed Yes | 67c | 31,410$21,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,310.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009d…bcebbacked Yes | 70c | 30,788$21,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,202.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 67c | 30,254$20,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,024.9 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…f1ecbacked No | 3c | 30,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.