TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,634,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,813,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,634,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 8,060 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x269f…16c9backed No4c1,904,039$72,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,289.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes79c1,270,481$998,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,938.252321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6550…d966backed Yes71c709,409$504,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,716.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes65c534,804$346,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,052.181136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes79c463,896$364,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,623.382231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes57c461,365$263,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198,123.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5d…3c28backed No11c360,696$39,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,676.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes56c354,250$196,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,455.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes73c330,311$241,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,531.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes56c322,454$181,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,272.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d14…c06dbacked No6c320,073$18,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,814.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5d…1ccbbacked No4c319,230$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes33c300,679$98,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,995.952548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5587…42dabacked Yes61c294,667$180,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,341.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes64c263,287$169,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,651.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes69c256,868$177,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,048.141020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a14…e0fbbacked Yes62c245,482$153,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,296.173100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes55c221,598$122,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,769.141631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes80c220,984$176,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,292.83850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes67c211,409$142,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,166.531681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb18c…0d06backed No3c206,447$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes70c201,821$142,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,728.592725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes69c193,341$133,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,247.121376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes67c165,014$110,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,465.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+78%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x830e…514fbacked No3c160,803$5,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,44840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4340…64c4backed Yes57c151,966$86,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,550.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Yes72c127,887$91,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,167.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd459…13f9backed Yes78c124,955$97,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,390.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed No4c123,432$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…8cc1backed Yes78c118,058$91,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,285.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked No3c117,226$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd79c…cf5fbacked No4c114,090$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae4…9188backed Yes49c110,996$54,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,874.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes33c110,308$36,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,944.968333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes34c102,111$34,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,392.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No3c102,071$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.651931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes78c101,397$78,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,472.831526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4c…392fbacked Yes34c100,396$34,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,334.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes36c100,152$35,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,406.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes66c100,065$65,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,174.141266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe0…0cd3backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked No16c100,000$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,999.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x476d…67c6backed Yes73c95,160$69,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,985.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes68c95,000$64,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,7601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba66…f59dbacked Yes77c93,000$71,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,809.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a6…2e31backed No32c92,359$29,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,221.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes68c88,209$59,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,226.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…afd4backed Yes50c85,455$42,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,727.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f32…b501backed No17c81,496$14,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,233.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes40c80,696$32,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,037.43423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No31c79,188$24,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,458.992015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes56c78,981$44,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,372.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes71c75,117$53,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,116.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked Yes65c74,214$48,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,906.95333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd7c…d563backed No25c69,588$17,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,062.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a47…88f2backed Yes71c69,495$49,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,330.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes76c68,322$51,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,6741631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c3…6ff7backed No4c67,911$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Yes50c63,999$32,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,742.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df9…03b2backed Yes49c61,360$30,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,332.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e57…84a5backed No8c60,561$4,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,644.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes64c60,104$38,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,668.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No18c60,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.931833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9301…3b67backed No52c50,592$26,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,443.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa502…4086backed No11c50,400$5,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,713.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfede…95babacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No48c50,000$24,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,139.6258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes54c50,000$27,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,799.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x188d…dad8backed Yes30c49,471$14,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,629.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes73c49,430$36,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,245.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd8…cd6cbacked No6c48,855$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No4c46,230$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.53195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes68c45,245$30,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,357.552213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…c1a1backed Yes32c43,430$13,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,555.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2977…8abfbacked No3c43,171$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.4780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4a…ffaebacked No5c41,779$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721c…198fbacked No2c41,764$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a8…48c2backed Yes69c41,443$28,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,778.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa402…1453backed No3c41,339$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes38c39,000$14,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,253.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No23c38,935$8,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,794.2880%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked No4c38,508$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Yes61c38,289$23,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,932.621361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes51c38,200$19,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,651.482138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes31c38,151$11,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,295.341827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No15c36,110$5,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.732913.8%4 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes50c35,631$17,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,652.11825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed Yes73c35,551$25,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,704.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed No24c34,972$8,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,347.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes80c34,858$27,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,994.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-77.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a44…9d20backed No34c34,229$11,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,527.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes30c33,561$9,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,583.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…4979backed No3c33,500$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…fbf3backed No3c33,470$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603e…3128backed Yes70c33,336$23,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,856.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…1e72backed No3c31,811$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f96…bda8backed Yes67c31,410$21,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,310.2425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x009d…bcebbacked Yes70c30,788$21,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,202.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes67c30,254$20,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,024.95431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd485…f1ecbacked No3c30,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.