TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,173,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,713,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,173,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c16,939,350$89,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,335.78170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c8,692,818$29,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,575.011520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c7,312,906$65,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,931.86205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921d…efb8backed Yes1c5,549,970$33,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,849.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c4,010,698$6,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,622.62280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c1,942,684$15,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,056.84812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c1,820,785$19,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,953.37320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…750bbacked Yes0c1,668,366$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…4252backed Yes1c1,525,338$18,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,387.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c1,476,721$15,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,268.93352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes0c1,300,985$6,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,203.9490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362e…fa25backed Yes0c1,111,801$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,100,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c1,005,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0101020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes0c1,000,000$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,142.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3312backed Yes0c1,000,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes0c966,525$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ccc…4825backed Yes0c938,937$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8e…a742backed Yes1c814,926$9,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,470.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3006…6f28backed Yes1c683,859$9,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,274.0340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes0c651,315$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.63100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked Yes1c612,775$7,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,966.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb67b…e0e7backed Yes0c608,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8310…54afbacked Yes0c600,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c4…740bbacked Yes0c600,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd57…694dbacked Yes0c597,554$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12db…2473backed Yes1c542,308$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Yes0c501,513$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02bf…e70dbacked Yes0c442,556$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes1c427,933$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.271513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes0c398,925$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bf…5815backed Yes1c346,429$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a96…022fbacked Yes0c319,999$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…3785backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7983…432cbacked Yes0c260,640$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc2…00c7backed Yes0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04e…8c31backed Yes0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea8e…3de0backed Yes1c249,642$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…03e1backed Yes1c241,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aef…c8cbbacked Yes1c240,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes1c207,692$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6231…2b6abacked Yes1c204,468$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84f…ff71backed Yes0c203,023$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0458…2acdbacked Yes1c200,131$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c200,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid-20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200342.9%1 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-96.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2977…8abfbacked Yes1c192,795$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.8480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f71…bae4backed Yes1c160,054$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes0c155,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f0…842abacked Yes1c154,559$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed Yes1c150,738$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes1c144,999$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Yes0c140,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e62…576bbacked Yes0c131,200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c123,564$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes0c120,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x428d…e7d7backed Yes1c120,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…2e76backed Yes0c120,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…bcf6backed Yes1c120,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes0c118,950$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e2…7b33backed Yes0c115,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes0c111,667$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid-13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes0c111,111$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e4…463cbacked Yes0c105,857$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8f…c6e5backed Yes0c105,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b64…71b9backed Yes0c104,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57d…6bcfbacked Yes0c101,100$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6186…c98abacked Yes0c101,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1105…b8fdbacked Yes0c101,000$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec9…4325backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a6…c7ffbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…6a98backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8099…ca1cbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5940…2a09backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c30…313fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafce…55d9backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d5…b3d8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb01e…6fdebacked Yes1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d1…7fd6backed Yes0c99,640$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes0c99,270$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.27230%0 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x60a7…9c1dbacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b83…b92bbacked Yes0c98,900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e4…9946backed Yes0c98,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…4946backed Yes0c95,680$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes0c95,140$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf3…26b2backed Yes0c86,013$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a8…1227backed Yes0c85,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0181…7d03backed Yes0c85,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5637…9ff8backed Yes0c83,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c9…d6d7backed Yes0c83,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614a…bcd7backed Yes0c82,000$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3c…6f42backed Yes0c81,667$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…53ffbacked Yes0c80,833$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc424…997dbacked Yes0c80,471$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4537…9ccbbacked Yes0c80,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.