Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd2fb666c5a346faee448e63267346a3ec394a52bce4c199877559da91cd2c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,173,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,713,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,173,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 16,939,350$89,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,335.78 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 8,692,818$29,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,575.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 1c | 7,312,906$65,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,931.86 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed Yes | 1c | 5,549,970$33,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,849.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 4,010,698$6,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,622.62 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 1c | 1,942,684$15,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,056.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 1,820,785$19,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,953.37 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…750bbacked Yes | 0c | 1,668,366$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 1c | 1,525,338$18,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,387.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 1,476,721$15,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,268.93 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 0c | 1,300,985$6,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,203.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 0c | 1,111,801$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 1,100,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 1,005,000$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,142.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3312backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes | 0c | 966,525$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…4825backed Yes | 0c | 938,937$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…a742backed Yes | 1c | 814,926$9,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,470.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6f28backed Yes | 1c | 683,859$9,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,274.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 0c | 651,315$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 1c | 612,775$7,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,966.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67b…e0e7backed Yes | 0c | 608,333$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…54afbacked Yes | 0c | 600,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…740bbacked Yes | 0c | 600,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 0c | 597,554$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…2473backed Yes | 1c | 542,308$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Yes | 0c | 501,513$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…e70dbacked Yes | 0c | 442,556$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 1c | 427,933$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 398,925$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…5815backed Yes | 1c | 346,429$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 0c | 333,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…022fbacked Yes | 0c | 319,999$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…3785backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…432cbacked Yes | 0c | 260,640$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…00c7backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…3de0backed Yes | 1c | 249,642$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…03e1backed Yes | 1c | 241,667$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…c8cbbacked Yes | 1c | 240,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed Yes | 1c | 207,692$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…2b6abacked Yes | 1c | 204,468$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…ff71backed Yes | 0c | 203,023$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…2acdbacked Yes | 1c | 200,131$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…8abfbacked Yes | 1c | 192,795$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…bae4backed Yes | 1c | 160,054$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 0c | 155,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…842abacked Yes | 1c | 154,559$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed Yes | 1c | 150,738$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 1c | 144,999$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Yes | 0c | 140,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e62…576bbacked Yes | 0c | 131,200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 123,564$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 0c | 120,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…e7d7backed Yes | 1c | 120,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…2e76backed Yes | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…bcf6backed Yes | 1c | 120,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 0c | 118,950$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…7b33backed Yes | 0c | 115,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes | 0c | 111,667$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 0c | 111,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…463cbacked Yes | 0c | 105,857$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…c6e5backed Yes | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b64…71b9backed Yes | 0c | 104,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…6bcfbacked Yes | 0c | 101,100$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…c98abacked Yes | 0c | 101,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…b8fdbacked Yes | 0c | 101,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…4325backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…fde7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…c7ffbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…6a98backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…ca1cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…2a09backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…313fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…55d9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…b3d8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…6fdebacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…7fd6backed Yes | 0c | 99,640$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 0c | 99,270$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…9c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b83…b92bbacked Yes | 0c | 98,900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…9946backed Yes | 0c | 98,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…4946backed Yes | 0c | 95,680$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 0c | 95,140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…26b2backed Yes | 0c | 86,013$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a8…1227backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…7d03backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…9ff8backed Yes | 0c | 83,333$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…d6d7backed Yes | 0c | 83,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…bcd7backed Yes | 0c | 82,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…6f42backed Yes | 0c | 81,667$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…53ffbacked Yes | 0c | 80,833$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc424…997dbacked Yes | 0c | 80,471$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…9ccbbacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.