Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 9:00 PM and 9:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1644ef44f0034f2e020776ff0bc70911b478aa4bc7be7513fbf209a9731d1c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 41c | 2,343$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 59c | 2,018$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.7 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…e7e5backed Yes | 60c | 833.16$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 612.54$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 550.48$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.61 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 31c | 523$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 25c | 470$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 39c | 452$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 306.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 37c | 260$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed Yes | 76c | 238$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 194$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 40c | 151.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 61c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…60b1backed No | 44c | 45.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 9:00 PM and 9:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?this page
- Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election at 3:00 AM ET or later on Nov 5 2025?No won
- Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election before 9:00 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?No won
- Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 10:00 PM and 10:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?No won
- arch Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 11:00 PM and 11:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.