Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ecc34a239bed6bc306a6c98fbdfae0ad1902b05051feb2a810bec25af9412d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,263,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,221,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 12c | 60,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…d256backed No | 10c | 51,648$5,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,142.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed No | 18c | 46,164$8,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,269.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 41c | 34,409$14,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,125.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 9c | 23,512$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 12c | 22,181$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.91 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 17c | 22,143$3,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,755.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 31c | 22,140$6,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,755.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 4c | 21,337$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.82 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 12c | 18,922$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 37c | 17,452$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,494.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd813…7b0dbacked No | 24c | 17,025$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,149.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…0fbdbacked No | 31c | 14,400$4,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,464 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…7e89backed Yes | 74c | 13,329$9,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,517.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 13c | 12,428$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.94 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 24c | 11,542$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.46 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…d1dfbacked No | 12c | 8,509$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 40c | 8,043$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…7d5fbacked No | 22c | 7,954$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…cc38backed Yes | 69c | 7,800$5,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,418 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 17c | 7,563$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…8f19backed No | 16c | 7,361$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…8108backed Yes | 74c | 6,918$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…8912backed No | 2c | 6,634$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…810cbacked Yes | 69c | 6,600$4,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed No | 23c | 6,504$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…3475backed Yes | 75c | 6,400$4,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 24c | 6,363$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed No | 20c | 6,361$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 72c | 6,023$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 19c | 5,918$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.76 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f0…ef06backed Yes | 64c | 5,728$3,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…a28fbacked Yes | 76c | 5,625$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 78c | 5,308$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked No | 2c | 5,096$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…2b5abacked Yes | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 12c | 4,941$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.08 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 30c | 4,941$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 4,815$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 21c | 4,462$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.73 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…9294backed Yes | 80c | 4,424$3,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 14c | 3,673$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2875…508cbacked No | 24c | 3,524$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 75c | 3,468$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…dcd1backed Yes | 72c | 3,393$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed Yes | 80c | 3,238$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 30c | 3,233$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed Yes | 67c | 3,043$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 2,842$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 2,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…0d87backed No | 24c | 2,695$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed Yes | 77c | 2,602$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 20c | 2,514$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 16c | 2,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0601…43ddbacked No | 42c | 2,455$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 2,432$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.24 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…9902backed No | 44c | 2,313$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…a3afbacked No | 33c | 2,260$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked No | 23c | 2,227$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 18c | 2,218$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 70c | 2,199$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.55 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 28c | 2,196$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…11c9backed Yes | 79c | 2,195$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,176$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 29c | 2,169$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…9ab6backed No | 14c | 2,123$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed No | 16c | 2,072$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.29 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 32c | 2,005$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 79c | 1,992$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…a774backed Yes | 22c | 1,985$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ba…6a77backed No | 27c | 1,983$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 59c | 1,965$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 38c | 1,929$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 35c | 1,916$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…daf6backed No | 17c | 1,916$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 1,854$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 16c | 1,826$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed No | 17c | 1,823$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed Yes | 72c | 1,814$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 1,801$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 1,786$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…5c13backed No | 45c | 1,760$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 2c | 1,729$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 69c | 1,719$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed No | 19c | 1,698$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed No | 2c | 1,694$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c8cebacked No | 13c | 1,693$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…83c0backed Yes | 54c | 1,668$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed No | 12c | 1,650$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…3042backed No | 25c | 1,648$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…c1b6backed Yes | 57c | 1,612$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…47f1backed Yes | 56c | 1,601$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…5f73backed Yes | 56c | 1,592$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…d12cbacked No | 42c | 1,577$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f99…64d5backed No | 51c | 1,569$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 39c | 1,557$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.09 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked No | 4c | 1,550$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3300 and $3400 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.