TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,263,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,221,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c4c…cb39backed No12c60,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,90030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594c…d256backed No10c51,648$5,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,142.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab45…c4f5backed No18c46,164$8,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,269.131010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No41c34,409$14,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,125.82825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No9c23,512$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.111010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No12c22,181$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,735.914235.7%15 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No17c22,143$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.061513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked No31c22,140$6,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,755.891010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed No4c21,337$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.82684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No12c18,922$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.71850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No37c17,452$6,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,494.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd813…7b0dbacked No24c17,025$4,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,149.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b03…0fbdbacked No31c14,400$4,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,46410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8da…7e89backed Yes74c13,329$9,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,517.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No13c12,428$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.94229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No24c11,542$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.4632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002536%9 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked No12c8,509$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No40c8,043$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,232.1250%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…7d5fbacked No22c7,954$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c7…cc38backed Yes69c7,800$5,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No17c7,563$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb29c…8f19backed No16c7,361$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2450…8108backed Yes74c6,918$5,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b5…8912backed No2c6,634$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e8…810cbacked Yes69c6,600$4,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed No23c6,504$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.741450%7 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+52.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b08…3475backed Yes75c6,400$4,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No24c6,363$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038e…9d60backed No20c6,361$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.031241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes72c6,023$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.82911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick45cpaid-82.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No19c5,918$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.763020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f0…ef06backed Yes64c5,728$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…a28fbacked Yes76c5,625$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No78c5,308$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked No2c5,096$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1b…2b5abacked Yes76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No12c4,941$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.0811615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No30c4,941$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.114050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No13c4,815$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.768617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No21c4,462$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.7334534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2c…9294backed Yes80c4,424$3,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.151428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No14c3,673$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.142650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2875…508cbacked No24c3,524$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed Yes75c3,468$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.211618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-71.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed Yes72c3,393$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcee…0f35backed Yes80c3,238$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.42955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No30c3,233$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf88…11a8backed Yes67c3,043$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c2,842$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.67765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c2,800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d7…0d87backed No24c2,695$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373f…1878backed Yes77c2,602$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No20c2,514$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No16c2,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4054544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0601…43ddbacked No42c2,455$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No20c2,432$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.247921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d3b…9902backed No44c2,313$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b2…a3afbacked No33c2,260$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked No23c2,227$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.76120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No18c2,218$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes70c2,199$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.554440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No28c2,196$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617a…11c9backed Yes79c2,195$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c2,176$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.431306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9a…a377backed No29c2,169$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed6d…9ab6backed No14c2,123$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No16c2,072$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.291580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No32c2,005$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes79c1,992$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb13…a774backed Yes22c1,985$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.28714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ba…6a77backed No27c1,983$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes59c1,965$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes38c1,929$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No35c1,916$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a12…daf6backed No17c1,916$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No2c1,854$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.69137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed Yes16c1,826$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0877…fa92backed No17c1,823$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes72c1,814$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.112437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No2c1,801$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.18147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No2c1,786$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.89128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e9…5c13backed No45c1,760$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No2c1,729$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes69c1,719$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.16977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed No19c1,698$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed No2c1,694$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.03180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d65…c8cebacked No13c1,693$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5059…83c0backed Yes54c1,668$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…1528backed No12c1,650$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe597…3042backed No25c1,648$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7002…c1b6backed Yes57c1,612$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ab…47f1backed Yes56c1,601$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6425…5f73backed Yes56c1,592$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e1…d12cbacked No42c1,577$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f99…64d5backed No51c1,569$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed No39c1,557$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.092832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked No4c1,550$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.