Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b24cafc91dab88f0642d0f940971859807cb7f64f02e6a9df738d8e576b2e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $320,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 46,340$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 46,187$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.81 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…4cf5backed Yes | 0c | 15,854$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 1c | 10,021$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959d…24b1backed Yes | 2c | 7,130$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…b79cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,121$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…1240backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…3c3fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,090$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe255…4a81backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…8fafbacked Yes | 1c | 7,080$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,409$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36c…e1adbacked Yes | 1c | 5,909$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…8845backed Yes | 1c | 4,034$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…00b3backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,658$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…ad8fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,512$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc0…4ee3backed Yes | 1c | 3,238$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…2e0bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…d3eebacked Yes | 2c | 2,496$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,429$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd03…af6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…f030backed Yes | 1c | 1,621$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…30fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,088$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 1c | 999.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 2c | 999.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 4c | 976.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…bfcbbacked Yes | 14c | 842.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…b1e9backed Yes | 2c | 800.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…5f96backed Yes | 2c | 615.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 535.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 400.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 3c | 368.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…c640backed Yes | 14c | 191.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…54a1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3300 and $3400 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.