TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c42,703$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.24684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c27,490$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.954235.7%15 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes2c16,627$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.551513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes3c14,383$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8434534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes0c8,635$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.77180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c8,527$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.071,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes6c5,841$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade6…2413backed Yes2c5,662$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes2c5,445$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.55229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c5,346$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes7c5,334$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.731010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1b…2446backed Yes5c3,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes7c3,545$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.232832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes2c2,630$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.37825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes4c2,499$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes8c2,356$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…cfb3backed Yes5c2,235$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c1,984$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.25908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes2c1,872$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.771315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e6…2e0bbacked Yes8c1,770$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes4c1,672$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.964528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes3c1,644$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.973020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes4c1,623$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes6c1,537$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.67120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa08b…77b0backed Yes3c1,504$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96190%0 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes3c1,400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69fc…c7dabacked Yes8c1,329$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f1…5743backed Yes8c1,315$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes7c1,281$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c1,272$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.011306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…914dbacked Yes4c1,245$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd238…da6bbacked Yes8c1,240$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes1c1,200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes2c1,110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cda…608cbacked Yes5c1,008$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10e…6259backed Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-71.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…589abacked Yes3c1,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab45…c4f5backed Yes6c999.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes8c998.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe19a…0823backed Yes4c936.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c905.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8151…0792backed Yes2c885.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes3c868$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90cb…5dcabacked Yes6c853.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8c…7b6bbacked Yes10c810.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd180…bfcbbacked Yes18c792.12$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes7c721.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes4c721.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick54cpaid-76.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa43a…5c9cbacked Yes7c699.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2450…8108backed Yes19c696.79$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…562ebacked Yes2c696.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d9…5f96backed Yes7c638.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes6c635.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes2c611.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391844.4%8 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+91.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c17…636dbacked Yes8c591.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes4c530$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0680%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes4c520.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9a…ac38backed Yes8c510$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes11c482.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes4c472.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9b…d771backed Yes4c460$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed Yes5c453.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.762025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2125…f0d0backed Yes5c436.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6002…9dfebacked Yes8c431.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes3c430$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes3c416.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes12c412.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Yes5c410.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a6…495dbacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1479…eb67backed Yes8c390.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c370$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.672934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab8…590fbacked Yes6c341.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba84…4091backed Yes6c335.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdab…bc8fbacked Yes8c329.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2699…3f36backed Yes6c329.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes4c299.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.73122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x058f…b3c3backed Yes4c287.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes6c263.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a19…1628backed Yes7c262.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes8c261.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ab0…955fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c88…39c7backed Yes9c228.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes7c209.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-72%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9921…0082backed Yes5c208.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d0…e7b5backed Yes6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6462…3e58backed Yes10c190.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15f…2f24backed Yes7c178.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes11c176.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4482…6c78backed Yes7c142$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…c55fbacked Yes17c119.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a1…7b89backed Yes22c92.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.