TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$353,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c47,712$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.434235.7%15 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c27,845$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.05684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f7…c2e2backed No46c26,517$12,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,319.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe346…82abbacked Yes54c26,517$14,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,319.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e0…1483backed Yes4c24,039$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes2c18,128$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.95229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c8,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c6,294$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.431,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8e…299cbacked Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2c…89e5backed Yes1c4,306$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fe…3390backed Yes5c4,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c3,153$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes7c2,732$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1031…dbd7backed Yes7c2,337$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab45…c4f5backed Yes1c2,264$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.171010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes1c2,007$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd03…af6bbacked Yes2c1,989$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes8c1,981$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.013020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e6…2e0bbacked Yes3c1,620$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Yes4c1,526$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c1,295$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes17c1,287$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.14120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481c…0a0dbacked Yes2c1,109$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes2c1,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.14544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes30c1,072$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c854.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.512934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f1…d881backed Yes5c841.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…e34cbacked Yes3c827.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ca…6e50backed Yes2c797.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b52…654bbacked Yes3c750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Yes7c729.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43c…b1e9backed Yes3c719.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No72c644.98$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed No71c600.45$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes8c594.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.191513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3432…501ebacked Yes3c575$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes32c543.72$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcee…0f35backed Yes5c500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes29c488.37$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed60…0b94backed Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed No64c422.41$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+227.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9597…11b6backed Yes5c421.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.73122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765e…df12backed Yes5c365.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4c…8d17backed Yes3c330.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9921…0082backed Yes3c315.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…cfb3backed Yes4c315.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked No74c311.24$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.491216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes25c274.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.942437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+321.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2125…f0d0backed Yes4c245.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa4…93e4backed Yes4c229.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2575…e7e6backed Yes5c205.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b55…89babacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…316ebacked Yes7c195.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de7…b4a8backed Yes7c188.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89d5…591bbacked Yes29c171.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581e…8cebbacked Yes35c143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5734…f13abacked No75c137.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes33c130.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.032832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x691e…d59dbacked No74c126.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab24…8c8ebacked No67c120.87$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes27c120.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2067…605dbacked No67c119.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd02d…17e8backed No66c107.01$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1515…4320backed Yes25c103.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3480%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d6…aa44backed No69c100.1$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed No71c98.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed No73c74.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98f…6a3fbacked No73c65.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf526…35b1backed No66c65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4810…d688backed No76c62.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fb…b892backed No75c60.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…39b1backed No78c59.37$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf353…7aecbacked No69c58.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12f…acdfbacked No68c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+187.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddd…722dbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4974…ea15backed No69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.864339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-36.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce8e…923fbacked No67c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…1f07backed No69c43.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b40…6ec9backed No68c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e86…23afbacked Yes32c40.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No69c31.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.69738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a6a…4846backed No56c30.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78af…7059backed Yes46c29.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Yes57c27.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4905…ace8backed No74c27.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe5…0309backed No66c21.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef2…bc22backed No64c21.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe699…8790backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.