Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b1967f76a47135b8b76bd6af9304458384c6f8bbfe45a96190efc27ebab809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 16,974$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.61 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 8c | 16,682$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff4…0551backed Yes | 1c | 14,905$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 13,462$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…d256backed Yes | 3c | 12,000$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…f383backed Yes | 0c | 10,763$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…7f41backed Yes | 0c | 9,428$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 9,232$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.54 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,823$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Yes | 4c | 7,629$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 1c | 7,324$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 6,583$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…89e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,474$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…c977backed Yes | 0c | 5,356$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…9d98backed Yes | 5c | 4,634$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…805abacked Yes | 11c | 4,425$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 16c | 3,586$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 8c | 3,500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 3,239$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d8…1cdfbacked Yes | 10c | 3,100$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 6c | 3,092$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 3c | 2,923$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…2413backed Yes | 4c | 2,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 13c | 2,419$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…27cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…c7dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,214$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 6c | 2,150$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 4c | 2,131$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…914dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,114$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 7c | 2,093$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…589abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e61…1340backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 9c | 1,984$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 9c | 1,966$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 12c | 1,955$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…5c9cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,793$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…daf6backed Yes | 6c | 1,671$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 1,643$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,583$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,579$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 1,490$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…cfb3backed Yes | 4c | 1,420$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…de1fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,314$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…495dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,117$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…8108backed Yes | 28c | 1,063$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,040$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…6259backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 4c | 977.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8c…7b6bbacked Yes | 6c | 884.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 3c | 859.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc0…4ee3backed Yes | 12c | 855.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 3c | 847.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bf…c877backed Yes | 12c | 842.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…2e0bbacked Yes | 15c | 794.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 14c | 721.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…da6bbacked Yes | 14c | 715.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…65f1backed Yes | 8c | 665.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…636dbacked Yes | 8c | 655.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 5c | 599.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…8538backed Yes | 4c | 596.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…fb2fbacked Yes | 4c | 582.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdab…bc8fbacked Yes | 5c | 574.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 9c | 572.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 6c | 571.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked Yes | 9c | 535.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…bfcbbacked Yes | 19c | 526.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 7c | 524.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…87ccbacked Yes | 3c | 514.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…3d71backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Yes | 4c | 459.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 2c | 447.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 7c | 438.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…2dfbbacked Yes | 5c | 425.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…3959backed Yes | 10c | 407.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…f79dbacked Yes | 13c | 389.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…608cbacked Yes | 8c | 378.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…5cc1backed Yes | 6c | 369.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…f31ebacked Yes | 9c | 359.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 6c | 335$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…05f9backed Yes | 10c | 328.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…8757backed Yes | 6c | 319.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…5f96backed Yes | 10c | 310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…b3c3backed Yes | 6c | 310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 12c | 307.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 6c | 306$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…9e55backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…3f36backed Yes | 14c | 291.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked Yes | 7c | 290.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3300 and $3400 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.