TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,602,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,541,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,602,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 607 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa966…208bbacked Yes2c113,483$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.69310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes1c68,336$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.012941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes3c62,467$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.9290%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c57,489$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.285121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c36,118$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.96273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-86.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c25,440$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.37219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c23,529$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.474316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes8c21,000$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.983119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c19,300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.431216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c19,164$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.61702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c17,842$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.915219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…38acbacked Yes12c16,779$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes6c16,516$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes2c16,371$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.14140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes2c15,286$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes5c15,277$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.42326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes4c14,729$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.56175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes22c14,380$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.6350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c13,700$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.05160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ed…6609backed Yes1c13,333$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes6c12,467$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.031414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No68c11,636$7,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,670.31353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes4c11,569$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No79c10,071$7,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.121442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes1c8,603$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.232317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x028c…2419backed Yes9c8,596$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes55c8,532$4,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,692.660%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No45c8,196$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.564100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+124.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x050e…24e9backed Yes3c8,110$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No70c7,999$5,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes12c7,697$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.15120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d7b…1790backed Yes7c7,252$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes2c6,307$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2670%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes3c6,246$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.691741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes5c6,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes2c5,798$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.731729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes3c5,700$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-74.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes3c5,523$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.96922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes4c5,423$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a6…ffa5backed Yes3c5,388$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,122$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.331644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…ac22backed Yes26c5,027$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9dd…b761backed Yes2c5,007$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6b…6ce0backed Yes37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb5…d9a0backed Yes27c5,000$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36e…09e8backed Yes2c4,887$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e69…c403backed No71c4,754$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.924100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e26…cb80backed Yes3c4,565$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes10c4,515$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.58110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…e964backed Yes2c4,498$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes7c4,471$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.971838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes2c4,383$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.191145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+109.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes36c4,109$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.741118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd42f…6ce6backed Yes3c4,109$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd2…2925backed Yes3c4,062$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes6c3,994$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.06160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c3,919$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes6c3,899$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.12040%8 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes30c3,890$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.371338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes17c3,825$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.574843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes4c3,700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.561118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982e…39f3backed Yes40c3,683$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes2c3,501$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5870%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa365…ee73backed Yes5c3,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes30c3,445$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.741225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47a…1db6backed Yes27c3,276$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes3c3,266$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…2eddbacked Yes7c3,231$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2f…7976backed Yes4c3,151$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6290%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes2c3,112$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.152236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes11c3,097$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.72460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes2c2,846$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c2,845$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes19c2,784$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.11612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes5c2,723$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.572630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes3c2,691$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.411020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720f…0aabbacked Yes3c2,689$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes2c2,656$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.535014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5078…00e9backed Yes5c2,640$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa712…bcddbacked Yes3c2,635$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No64c2,521$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes5c2,498$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.921526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cdc…ab3abacked Yes2c2,488$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8483…6d56backed Yes3c2,465$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed Yes26c2,428$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011a…ca8ebacked Yes23c2,328$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…4085backed No70c2,312$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.668100%8 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a35…bc55backed No75c2,310$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5785100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc0…3c67backed Yes13c2,308$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes4c2,272$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.832619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes4c2,270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…95c1backed Yes2c2,250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.04119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c25…7c3bbacked Yes3c2,206$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf5…149bbacked Yes6c2,177$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes9c2,116$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.711428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…60b2backed Yes3c2,031$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.