TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x720f…0aab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$132
Will Kast win by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Jeannette Jara win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Jeannette Jara win less than 20% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$175
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 45% and 47%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 51% and 53%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 43% and 45%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$60.9
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 49% and 51%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 47% and 49%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 53%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$208
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+174%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$111
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$133
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+840.9%+$336.36
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$440
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,150.9%+$2,077.29
Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+190.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3)backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$58.13
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by <26%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,196.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$74.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.