Movies · resolved market
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb13c60aa046a862386f0008e0b456b7ecbaa3087434fb6579f34886b38931322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 7,463$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.13 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 5c | 4,465$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 4,167$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.35 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 35c | 3,590$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.49 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,409$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.45 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 13c | 3,333$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.06 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,644$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 42c | 2,189$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 48c | 1,958$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.51 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 29c | 1,846$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,298$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 14c | 1,292$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Yes | 32c | 1,205$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…0aabbacked Yes | 41c | 966.83$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 799.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 7c | 445.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 332 | 23.8%79 W · 253 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 31c | 406.52$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Yes | 7c | 381.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 5c | 335.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…44ecbacked Yes | 33c | 331$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 17c | 283.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 46c | 223.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed Yes | 17c | 204$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Yes | 35c | 199$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…18b5backed Yes | 27c | 184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 8c | 175.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…7edfbacked Yes | 60c | 166.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…8faabacked Yes | 12c | 162.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 13c | 160.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 133.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 17c | 127$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…b84dbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 39c | 77.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 40c | 77.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…e9ecbacked Yes | 24c | 72.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 71.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe934…33cdbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 148 | 27.7%41 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 24c | 55.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…3970backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 44.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2523…3f0fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 34c | 30.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 174 | 17.2%30 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?this page
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?Yes won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?No won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.