Movies · resolved market
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a875040b43c67f0b1fff78ce5da3b019f339293d171b09fe2e781af58ce695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 8,039$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,936$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 27c | 1,461$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.55 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 816.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 26c | 456.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 18c | 426.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 73c | 384.81$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 77c | 270.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 9c | 243$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…b84dbacked Yes | 18c | 163.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 73c | 114$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 13c | 86.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 86.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 77.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 17c | 77.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 16c | 63.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 21c | 54.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?this page
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?Yes won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?No won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.