Movies · resolved market
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0fb123a54e2913938424a3743930f9471c3886b40447dac30570d24f82989d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 70c | 1,002$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.57 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 6c | 878.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 332 | 23.8%79 W · 253 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 60c | 641.62$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.9 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 17c | 517.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.69 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 451.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…e9ecbacked Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 72c | 299.16$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 258.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 57c | 184.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 25c | 155.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 149.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed No | 21c | 142.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 34c | 120.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 148 | 27.7%41 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 95.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 40c | 89.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 78.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 77.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 13c | 77.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 79c | 70.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 35c | 52.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 56c | 42.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?this page
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?No won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?No won
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.