Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95cb3f45cebc81b213e336dcc212eb6b0bdc574b5329870c2987965f950d712a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 0c | 133,997$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 0c | 10,208$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 8c | 4,439$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed Yes | 68c | 2,641$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 5c | 2,440$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.84 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,717$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.44 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,154$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.09 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 68c | 971.62$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.7 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 952.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 939.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 754.87$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 6c | 741.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed No | 76c | 694.99$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…0aabbacked Yes | 41c | 602.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…18edbacked Yes | 61c | 602.7$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 22c | 460$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…1002backed Yes | 19c | 415.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…d1abbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 6c | 399.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 377.68$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 311.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…1817backed Yes | 78c | 302$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6377…384fbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 47c | 275.26$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 25c | 240.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 17c | 234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 231.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 65c | 230.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 35c | 220.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 60c | 220.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 20c | 214.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 76c | 176.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked Yes | 9c | 175.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 145.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 27c | 143.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 136.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 60c | 136.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 134.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 31c | 126.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 12c | 110.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 13c | 92.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked No | 76c | 89.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 45c | 87.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…ef77backed No | 74c | 82.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 28c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…caf2backed Yes | 13c | 78.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 45c | 77.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 19c | 67.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No | 72c | 61.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 34c | 38.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 44c | 37.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…0dc0backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 72c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…0c13backed Yes | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…ab96backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.