Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c6cc687491c718e6dacb99f9ed7cc7122f42ed9746a8acf8b6bb303a98ee33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 6,302$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 3,453$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 2,009$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 5c | 1,034$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 974.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 1c | 955.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 755.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 3c | 659$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 643$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 8c | 501.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 14c | 459.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 17c | 396.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 372.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 7c | 327.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 9c | 279.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 276.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 249.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 12c | 249.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 12c | 188.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9e8backed Yes | 8c | 181.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 14c | 135.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 130.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 120.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 102.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed No | 77c | 91.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 88.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 70c | 71.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.