Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd22ff83755bb881ce15c5ecc86fefbd6d5072ee36da53f7eabde8659b04d14b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 4,828$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed No | 80c | 2,828$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 757.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.77 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 10c | 708.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 23c | 642.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.4 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 50c | 501.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 77c | 491.5$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 57c | 483.1$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed No | 74c | 482.08$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 462.31$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5df2backed Yes | 80c | 314.21$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…d734backed Yes | 66c | 304.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 44c | 304.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…1817backed Yes | 59c | 303.32$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 242.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 49c | 226.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 226.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 63c | 205.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…1002backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 31c | 188$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 57c | 173.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 48c | 165.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 37c | 157.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 37c | 157.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 37c | 157.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 32c | 147.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…18edbacked Yes | 59c | 141.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 41c | 130$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 129.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 125.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 43c | 124.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 41c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 31c | 110.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 60c | 100.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 57c | 98.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 15c | 89.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 45c | 89.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 53c | 75.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 42c | 58.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 58.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Yes | 68c | 55.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 69c | 43.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 53c | 42.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…8220backed Yes | 60c | 40.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 39.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…07f8backed Yes | 62c | 23.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 59c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed Yes | 67c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…22c9backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 80c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.