Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9a3207d520436743bc9ab6f2e864bf4e89b4a38642217831e60b60bba524cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 1c | 186,262$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,322$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,035$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 2,006$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,421$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 6c | 1,416$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,106$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,098$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 2c | 849.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 3c | 661.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 8c | 613.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 6c | 611.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…0aabbacked Yes | 10c | 524.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…a279backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 10c | 473.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 439.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 7c | 421.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 6c | 399.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 9c | 393$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 5c | 299.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 272.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 5c | 210.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 15c | 195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 7c | 152.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 10c | 146.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 10c | 145.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 126.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 20c | 66.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…cfedbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 69c | 43.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 38.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 76c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.