Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b2470a0b93411e782734c70c37f29a9a7549ba7480fe625508659eb8b2d7b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 9,475$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 19c | 5,683$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.23 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 15c | 2,718$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 17c | 2,181$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.66 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 13c | 1,965$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…2473backed Yes | 8c | 1,725$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 1,218$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 1,022$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…5886backed No | 79c | 990$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 31c | 729.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 19c | 721.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 33c | 717.01$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.21 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 14c | 686.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 680.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 27c | 674.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 654.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 506.9$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 35c | 499.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 18c | 485$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 440$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 360$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…363bbacked Yes | 22c | 317.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 21c | 262.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 25c | 200.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 188.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 18c | 184.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 40c | 176.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 38c | 175.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…dba1backed No | 80c | 159.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 41c | 157.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 144.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…f0ebbacked Yes | 22c | 140.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 46c | 136.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 136.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 9c | 127.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 13c | 119.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…b0cfbacked Yes | 29c | 118.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 21c | 116.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 27c | 112.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 42c | 110.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 107.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 64c | 102.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes | 20c | 101.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 34c | 100.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…50aebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 35c | 97.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 35c | 95.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 95.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…3277backed Yes | 20c | 83.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…6a45backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 61c | 46.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 47c | 43.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked Yes | 49c | 39.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 28c | 38.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 65c | 37.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…9f9fbacked No | 72c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.