TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No25c3,183$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.324,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes79c2,758$2,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.5260235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked No23c1,864$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.512125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302a…8227backed Yes76c1,789$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.923743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed Yes76c1,754$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.035125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No19c1,532$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.196620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd49e…5110backed No19c1,324$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.628924.7%22 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes69c1,269$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes64c1,174$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.79230.4%28 W · 64 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3342…df4ebacked Yes79c675.91$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes50c649.84$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0527534.2%94 W · 181 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd29…fd24backed Yes73c500$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes72c491.72$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2884930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd83a…3609backed Yes79c488.24$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.641947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No30c479$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8621641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c476.51$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5571…0346backed Yes36c431.98$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe939…b40bbacked Yes61c377.56$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.711520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes74c299.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc107…0137backed Yes74c286.7$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.738016.3%13 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc56…5886backed Yes70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+215.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8617…1002backed Yes65c225.36$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No15c216.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5124710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Yes68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7612624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2247417.9%85 W · 389 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c199.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.362,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes63c181.77$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed No33c179$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450c…e161backed Yes70c169.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.411050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…afb9backed No63c158.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005042%21 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes78c158.64$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.741553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes50c150$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.51,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes60c126.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.172334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…4bf3backed Yes60c125.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.052231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes63c124.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.94316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes61c123.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.173336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3336…87adbacked Yes45c122.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.223661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc90d…148dbacked Yes43c115.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.682321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes50c115$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.420728%58 W · 149 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes48c110.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5215752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes32c109.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes44c102.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.817334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6672726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635944.1%26 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9911126.1%29 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes45c99.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.772445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64dd…9d28backed Yes80c91.31$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c1…4a23backed No22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes30c86.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.462240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…7828backed Yes44c79.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.315560%33 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c77.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No65c76.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1584759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes56c74.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Yes67c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed No39c73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes77c71.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Yes67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4aa…a540backed Yes60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.71127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd5…5772backed Yes71c67.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.59650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bad…08a1backed Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.524148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes65c61.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.368637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd0…5651backed No35c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ac…a437backed Yes43c54.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.352420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0aed…8220backed Yes78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.28580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes70c51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.466735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1525947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes31c49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.811752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes39c48.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.483748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No61c47.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.078563.5%54 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes79c47.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.189954.5%54 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x494d…0804backed Yes34c47.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.063063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce9c…54a1backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…58efbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No38c37.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.238852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c36.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.91,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes66c30.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.152642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a0…9981backed Yes71c29.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes37c28.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.076723.9%16 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x522b…e2a6backed Yes72c27.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes48c24.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Yes67c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes61c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.