Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359520d567dda381c2f9c96a8d6aa7c229bb562ab4fa7b0c13ebe9ac57bd7db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 25c | 3,183$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 79c | 2,758$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.52 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 23c | 1,864$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.5 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 76c | 1,789$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 76c | 1,754$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.03 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 19c | 1,532$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 19c | 1,324$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 69c | 1,269$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,174$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.7 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 79c | 675.91$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 50c | 649.84$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.05 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 73c | 500$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 72c | 491.72$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.28 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 79c | 488.24$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 30c | 479$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 476.51$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 36c | 431.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 61c | 377.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 74c | 299.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 74c | 286.7$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…5886backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…1002backed Yes | 65c | 225.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 15c | 216.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 199.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 63c | 181.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed No | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 70c | 169.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 63c | 158.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 78c | 158.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 60c | 126.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 60c | 125.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 63c | 124.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 61c | 123.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 43c | 115.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 48c | 110.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 44c | 102.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 45c | 99.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…9d28backed Yes | 80c | 91.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 30c | 86.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 44c | 79.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 77.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 56c | 74.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed No | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes | 77c | 71.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…5772backed Yes | 71c | 67.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 65c | 61.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 43c | 54.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…8220backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 39c | 48.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 61c | 47.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 79c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…54a1backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 38c | 37.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 36.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…9981backed Yes | 71c | 29.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 37c | 28.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes | 48c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.