World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb17d338d4fa8feba61fb864ae400ad1b0ace31ba569546cc59863cf8a9d707d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bb3…641fbacked Yes | 4c | 17,146$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 2c | 11,432$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.38 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,195$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.62 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,430$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 2c | 5,024$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed Yes | 3c | 4,064$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,724$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,643$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 3,629$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.81 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…e170backed Yes | 5c | 3,388$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…847abacked Yes | 13c | 3,077$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,962$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Yes | 4c | 2,630$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…6a01backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,839$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3d88backed Yes | 3c | 1,755$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,709$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…65a5backed Yes | 7c | 1,216$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…2668backed Yes | 2c | 1,199$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 8c | 1,190$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 965.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Yes | 7c | 857.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 698.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 679.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Yes | 5c | 649.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 7c | 619.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…0aabbacked Yes | 7c | 590.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 4c | 500.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…c24cbacked Yes | 5c | 494.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 4c | 484.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +855%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…14c4backed Yes | 3c | 436.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 4c | 340.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 304.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 18c | 299.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 238.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…465dbacked Yes | 23c | 232.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…d042backed Yes | 11c | 226.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked No | 67c | 158.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…68dcbacked Yes | 11c | 100.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.