World Politics · resolved market
Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf861b35bb08f6e0d1eefbf3b0cda2a7ce59fcb037050ef1de3c0a5ed131c0f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…e2d7backed Yes | 19c | 21,790$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…847abacked Yes | 16c | 17,790$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 12c | 15,530$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.63 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…14c4backed Yes | 19c | 4,234$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,832$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.63 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 14c | 3,701$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.66 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…2668backed Yes | 5c | 2,984$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,264$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.28 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…92a0backed Yes | 18c | 2,247$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 1,951$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.7 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,803$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,578$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 15c | 1,475$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,322$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…3f3abacked Yes | 11c | 944.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 16c | 874.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 870.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 13c | 848.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…4ab0backed Yes | 3c | 803.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…d7fabacked Yes | 16c | 746.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 9c | 699.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…cd5fbacked Yes | 2c | 659.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 617.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 603.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 599.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 599.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…cc56backed Yes | 18c | 550.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…8da1backed Yes | 19c | 545.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…5fc3backed Yes | 2c | 503.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…93f1backed Yes | 13c | 501.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 17c | 466.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3d88backed Yes | 14c | 397.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 13c | 383.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 14c | 321.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 302$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 299.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…6b64backed Yes | 14c | 287.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 18c | 272$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 12c | 263.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…c34fbacked Yes | 18c | 249.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…f97bbacked Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…735ebacked Yes | 22c | 214.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…e971backed Yes | 16c | 196.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…0ad0backed Yes | 18c | 186.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 12c | 180.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…91a7backed Yes | 15c | 177.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 18c | 177.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 13c | 177.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…818fbacked Yes | 13c | 175.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…54ebbacked Yes | 19c | 155.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…a8cdbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 18c | 132.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…bd97backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…18c2backed Yes | 15c | 126.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…0660backed Yes | 16c | 124.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b276backed Yes | 17c | 120.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes | 9c | 115.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 13c | 112.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 21c | 106.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 20c | 100.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…0935backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked No | 80c | 98.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…740dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Yes | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…83bbbacked Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 78c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…4cd2backed No | 80c | 22.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6c…5893backed No | 80c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.