World Politics · resolved market
Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb2df3bbe8e6cf9d5fb1774bf9c3a0905e6f4d760f904a910728c89e71438aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 1c | 33,562$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…847abacked Yes | 21c | 15,320$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,639$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…7755backed Yes | 3c | 11,221$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,354$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,403$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 4,531$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 3,986$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…041fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,800$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 0c | 3,620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,323$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,382$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…82d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,308$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,276$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…2668backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…78d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…a72cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…220cbacked Yes | 3c | 967.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 962.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…bd2ebacked Yes | 2c | 873.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 7c | 870.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 862.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 75c | 777.22$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…92a0backed Yes | 29c | 693.01$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 2c | 578.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8844backed Yes | 3c | 545.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 527.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 2c | 492$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…18c2backed Yes | 4c | 473.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…4ab0backed Yes | 5c | 439.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 24c | 387.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df9…ab8dbacked No | 80c | 375.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 3c | 352.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…69b9backed Yes | 3c | 352.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…b221backed Yes | 24c | 338.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 9c | 290$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…8129backed Yes | 28c | 200.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 159.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…7158backed Yes | 63c | 137.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…31c4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 23c | 76.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e44…8386backed Yes | 52c | 57.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…af7fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Franco Parisi come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.