World Politics · resolved market
Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d3292c18099a0f8d246f4741bf5b42e53fa144e037f0af7c39e83de0bc449d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 19c | 1,409$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 1,355$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.61 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 559.19$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 42c | 547.31$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…fc69backed Yes | 56c | 531.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 77c | 408.57$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…7d19backed Yes | 44c | 394.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…dc4dbacked Yes | 45c | 381.59$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…0aabbacked Yes | 46c | 380.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…2411backed Yes | 47c | 361.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 43c | 348.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…2560backed Yes | 60c | 334.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 63c | 230.14$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 193.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 128.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 47c | 110.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked No | 56c | 103.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…85dbbacked Yes | 51c | 97.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…2c80backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 67c | 83.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…6b64backed Yes | 46c | 74.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 37c | 63.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b9debacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 57c | 51.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 55c | 46.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…7d1bbacked No | 63c | 44.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…d1babacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…9d28backed No | 61c | 41.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 54c | 39.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…c5cfbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 30.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…cda7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…a983backed No | 61c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb591…29a6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?this page
- Will Cambio por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Izquierda Ecologista Popular Animalista y Humanista gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Unidad por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.