World Politics · resolved market
Will Unidad por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3edad864f17c120d3cd8ae33ef6d83c0f4048ddb8e530953e653fdaceb33b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 1,322$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.79 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 39c | 611.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.21 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 40c | 536.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…8dfdbacked Yes | 37c | 524.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 491.54$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.56 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 41c | 302.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 274$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…92a0backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…9d28backed Yes | 51c | 190.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 65c | 154$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 147$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed Yes | 72c | 140.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 48c | 100.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 64c | 98.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 36c | 68.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…f16abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…bb5dbacked Yes | 46c | 44.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…c5cfbacked Yes | 42c | 37.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…cda7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Unidad por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?this page
- Will Cambio por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Izquierda Ecologista Popular Animalista y Humanista gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.