World Politics · resolved market
Will Cambio por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20b49311390ed5f5e0fc23d242ec527f0203ffc4512764d9fe94447e33055ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24f7…14c4backed Yes | 21c | 5,903$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.97 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 16c | 1,856$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…9d9dbacked Yes | 17c | 500.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 431.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 380.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 273$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 18c | 240$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…2560backed Yes | 24c | 209.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 7c | 179.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 18c | 138.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 122.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…84adbacked Yes | 22c | 98.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 69c | 74.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…ce64backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 24c | 59.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67dfbacked No | 78c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…12bebacked No | 78c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cambio por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?this page
- Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Izquierda Ecologista Popular Animalista y Humanista gain the most seats in the Senate election?No won
- Will Unidad por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.