TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$437,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b44…264ebacked No35c43,257$15,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,350.813560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes48c26,149$12,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,546.862626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No10c21,399$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.6912630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No17c10,835$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.296546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes23c10,655$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,152.673935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes76c9,600$7,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.14156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes79c8,831$6,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed No0c8,142$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.28825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No19c7,676$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.0732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No3c7,487$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.725736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed No74c6,998$5,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,198.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No17c6,790$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.1815032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes40c6,548$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,904.5713029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes77c6,001$4,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.742138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No63c5,953$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.5419236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes29c5,827$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.6133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes72c5,800$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.5917633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No13c5,082$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.181181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick59cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf936…0b6fbacked No16c4,940$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035f…3837backed No3c4,756$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes69c3,058$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.552835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes71c2,906$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.321656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No4c2,903$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.832817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82b7…ec1abacked No1c2,883$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes18c2,804$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.474850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed No1c2,803$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8330…9387backed Yes21c2,698$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+316.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No25c2,526$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.1914135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No32c2,476$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.351118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No1c2,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No30c2,168$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.0221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed No12c2,049$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.49825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No6c2,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa140…de3cbacked No30c1,914$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No54c1,888$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.595437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3f…1fc6backed Yes15c1,800$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c1,736$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc62…6307backed Yes70c1,704$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No37c1,661$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.57540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes48c1,648$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.322236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes71c1,628$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.845050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No29c1,499$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7117850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…a1a1backed No21c1,486$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes38c1,482$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.9311541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3b…e652backed Yes68c1,470$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+285.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed Yes60c1,413$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.281861.1%11 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No74c1,260$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53fc…960bbacked No59c1,256$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.11947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No31c1,182$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.8719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes59c1,145$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.541747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes74c1,142$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.779347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes9c1,137$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.263537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No38c1,032$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.717331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c1,011$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.1155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No23c984.2$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.432245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes61c967.76$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No68c962.26$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.455343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Yes70c960$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.21233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c44…9b54backed No3c880.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed No29c872.67$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.421850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb066…c5ecbacked No33c841.67$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.16425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b4…8d97backed Yes76c838.7$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc419…1372backed Yes74c832.55$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No31c800$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24823639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed No33c799.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No50c769.01$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.278441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No33c763.6$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.255837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes74c763.16$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.977751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes70c750$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed No69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No33c653.97$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.556540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2e…dffdbacked Yes17c603.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+121.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked Yes66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Yes13c597.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.92556%14 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.32per pick24cpaid+320%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x829d…dffdbacked Yes78c576.38$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+66.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes71c563.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+67.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c554.98$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed4e…443dbacked Yes75c546.36$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No31c544.22$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.383663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked No14c523.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.311010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked No14c521.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2810145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes10c500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+72.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…d8c1backed No20c496.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No18c493.88$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked No37c487.47$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.152650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No11c480.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.88827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No51c455.37$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.735335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c439.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.0211010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf0…fd08backed No32c431.56$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf175…dcccbacked No58c428.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3d…2467backed Yes76c425.56$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.591866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2148…61dbbacked Yes59c423.89$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked No79c420.73$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.7870%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8c3c…cf9cbacked No27c415.38$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e2…b7bebacked Yes12c410.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.69560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+186.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes44c409.62$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1613943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes10c404.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.433542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.